US Home Price/Cost Forecast

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US Home Prices have seen very strong gains over the past two years. The Case Shiller US Home Price index is up 20% between December 2019 and May 2021.

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Building products and commodity prices experienced strong price moves during 2020/2021 given various supply challenges, resulting in pressure on new home supply and higher input costs.

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Home builders typically maintain a stable profit margin of 8-10% of the home price, which means that the primary driver of home price change is the construction cost (~60% of total price).

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Equipment Radar has organized an Airtable to help you visualize how building costs impact home prices. We used data from the NAHB's 2019 Home Price Survey to forecast the projected increase in building costs (which ultimately have a large impact on home prices).

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You can modify the inflation rate to see how each component changes the overall price.

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Please note: All forecasts are for illustrative purposes only.

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Updated August 31, 2021 at 2:49 AM
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