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Name
1
Ethereum (design choices)
2
Human Brain Project
3
Nuclear power (phase-out programs)
4
Watson
5
Governmental ADS
6
SPICE
7
HD DVD
8
Ares I and Ares V; Constellation program (CxP)
9
Molecular nanotechnology (Drexler-Smalley debate)
10
Project Prometheus/Project Promethian
11
Boeing YAL-1 Airborne Laser Testbed
12
Crusader Artillery System
13
Nuclear weapons (Syria)
14
Nuclear weapons (Aum Shinrikyo)
15
Nuclear weapons (Kazakhstan)
16
Nuclear weapons (Ukraine)
17
G11
18
Ubicomp
19
"Lun" Ekranoplan
20
Brilliant Pebbles
21
Intermediate-range ballistic and cruise missiles (INF relinquishment)
22
Zenith Star
23
Strategic Computing Initiative
24
Nuclear weapons (Algeria)
25
Fifth Generation Computer Systems (FGCS)
26
Space Shuttle
27
Project Prometheus
28
Soviet laser pistol
29
Project Excalibur
30
US exotic ICBM Basing Options
31
ORCA concept
32
Project Stargate
33
Nuclear weapons (Argentina)
34
Nuclear weapons (Romania)
35
Concorde
36
Nuclear weapons (Iraq)
37
Digital cameras
38
Energia-Buran
39
Nuclear weapons (Iran)
40
Dungeons & Dragons
41
Tracked hovercraft RTV31
42
Mobile ICBM program
43
1K17 Szhatie / 'Stiletto'
44
B1 bomber
45
Nuclear weapons (Libya)
46
Project Cybersyn
47
Suitcase wheels
48
Nuclear weapons (South Korea)
49
Lockheed CL1201
50
Tupolev Tu-144
51
Nuclear weapons (South Africa)
52
Nuclear weapons (Taiwan)
53
Nuclear weapons (Japan)
54
Operation Popeye (Project Motorpool / Intermediary-Compatriot)
55
Nuclear weapons (Brazil)
56
'Nuclear Explosions for the National Economy'
57
Aérotrain
58
Ludion
59
Nuclear weapons (Indonesia)
60
Deep neural networks
61
Manned Orbiting Laboratory (MOL)
62
Fractional Orbital Bombardment Systems (FOBS)
63
Project Stormfury
64
Zvezda
65
'All-State Automated System of Management' (OGAS)
66
UR-500 Gerkules
67
GE Pedipulator
68
Project Plowshare
69
Caspian Sea Monster / Korabil Maket (KM)
70
Project Westford
71
Early Soviet ICBM force
72
Project Casaba-Howitzer
73
Nuclear weapons (India)
74
Safeguard Program
75
AR15/M16 rifle
76
X-20 Dyna-Soar
77
Boeing 2707
78
SR.N 1 - SRN 4
79
Project Horizon
80
Neutron bombs / Enhanced Radiation Weapons
81
Project A119 A Study of Lunar Research Flights
82
C-450 Coleoptere
83
Project PACER
84
Nuclear weapons (West Germany)
85
Nuclear weapons (Australia)
86
Goodyear Inflatoplane
87
Project Vanguard
88
Nuclear weapons (Egypt)
89
Nuclear weapons (Italy)
90
GNOMON and SUNDIAL
91
Thorium Molten Salt Reactors
92
Aircraft Nuclear Propulsion (ANP)
93
Project Orion
94
Atomic Gardening
95
'Go-to' programming statement
96
AD-1
97
Project Pluto
98
Nuclear weapons (Yugoslavia)
99
Projects 621, 664, 748
100
Nuclear weapons (Norway)
101
Nuclear weapons (Sweden)
102
Nuclear weapons (Switzerland)
103
*Majority of nuclear weapons programs historically*
104
I-400-class submarine
105
Project Habakkuk
106
'Death Dust'
107
A40
108
Baynes Bat
109
Nuclear bomb (Nazi Germany)
110
Design A-150 "Super Yamato"
111
Riout 102T Alérion
112
Zveno Project
113
Silbervogel
114
Death rays
115
Long-range heavy bombers
116
CFCs
117
Flettner rotor sails
118
Aircraft Carriers
119
Merchant submarines
120
Air Conditioning
121
Electric cars
122
Passenger Airships
123
Colour photography
124
Electrification ‘Battle of the currents’
125
DDT
126
Sawback bayonets
127
Land mines
128
Analytical Engine (Charles Babbage)
129
Bicycle
130
Shell guns and steel-hulled warships
131
Cotton Gin
132
Hot air balloons
133
Treshing machine
134
Firearms (Japan)
135
Saw-mills
136
Flush toilets
137
Ming Treasure Fleet
138
Wheel (Americas)
139
Rope
140
Poisoned, barbed & concealed weapons
141
Roman concrete
142
Steam engine
143
Flying shuttle (weaving looms)
144
Wheel (Eurasia)
145
Early gold crafting industry
146
Kinetic anti-satellite weapons
147
First AI Winter
148
Second AI winter
149
Geoengineering (UK)
150
Environmental Modification techniques
151
Human cloning
152
Atoms for Peace
153
Weather control technology
154
Gyrodine
155
Google Glass
156
Google Wave
157
Cluster munitions
158
Alternating-Current electrical infrastructure
159
GMO crop (EU)
160
Chemical weapons
161
Biological weapons
162
Agriculture
163
Blinding laser weapons
164
Flying cars
165
Exploding bullets
166
Nuclear power (reluctance)
167
Project iceworm
168
N.S. Savannah
169
Rotodyne
170
Project Thor
171
XM29 Objective Infantry Combat Weapon (OICW)
172
Boeing ----
173
Davy Crockett
174
Hardware lottery (Computing)
175
Flying boats
176
Convair Submersible Seaplane
177
Sea dragon
178
Project Daedalus
179
180
Recombinant DNA -- Asilomar
181
Bolt-action rifle
182
Medieval honey industry
183
Thermometer?
184
Non-electric telegraph
185
Wind power
186
POGO
187
Personal jetpacks
188
Gravity propulsion research
189
Sun Microsystems
190
calculus
191
New York Subway
192
Carrier pigeons
193
linear B
194
Indus script
195
(DARPA brain controlling tech for law enforcement program)
196
Damascus Steel
197
Indus plumbing
198
Greek fire
199
ballistic missile defense
200
201
Nuclear-powered pacemakers
202
Death rays
Drag to adjust the number of frozen columns
Capability
Time
Actor / [Treaty instrument]
Type of technology
Class
Type of cause/decision
Apparent rationales & contributory factors
Type of Effect
Description
Strength of restraint
Notes on Strength
Salience to AGI
Notes on AGI salience
Current confidence in case analysis
Sources

-proof of stake;

-complex sharding

-EVM specification

2014-present
Ethereum community
Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)
Institutional culture
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Unknown
Delayed development

https://vitalik.ca/general/2022/03/29/road.html

2013-present
EU
Unilateral
Institutional infighting
(Perceived) infeasibility
[Remains to be seen]
Neuroscientist letter of protest
In spite of scientific protests, project seems to have received continued EU funding

Nuclear power

2011-present
Italy, Germany (by 2022), Belgium, Spain, Switzerland (by 2030)
Unilateral
Risk/safety concern
Norms
Public protest
Relinquished/dismantled
Diminished use
[Remains to be seen]
In wake of Fukushima disaster
Shows willingness to incur economic & competitiveness costs for safety concerns

AI healthcare services

2011-2021
IBM / Microsoft
Unilateral
No use case / demand
(Perceived) infeasibility
Abandoned development
[Remains to be seen]
[[apparent - work out]
[[? system outcompeted by competitor solutions?]

61 different Automated Decisionmaking Systems

2011-2020
Various states - US, UK, Germany, Australia, New Zealand
Unilateral
Suboptimal performance of early models
Public protest
Abandoned development
Relinquished/dismantled
Non-use/deployment

https://www.carnegieuktrust.org.uk/publications/automating-public-services-learning-from-cancelled-systems/

Geoengineering delivery system

2011-2012
UK
Unilateral
Public protest
Institutional culture
Abandoned development

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328717301696

High definition optical disk format

2006-2008
Toshiba
Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)
Abandoned development
Lost to Blu-Ray
While involving unusual dynamics (eg shifting business alliances, including decisions by major film studios and retail distributors, and Sony's decision to include a Blu-ray player in their PlayStation 3), arguably a regular case of market competition

Development of spacecraft and booster vehicles -- Ares I and Ares V-- to enable completion of the ISS, return to the moon before 2020, and travel to Mars

2005-2009
US
Unilateral
Cost
Abandoned development

Molecular manufacturing vs nanomaterials

2004
US [21st Century Nanotechnology Research and Development Act]
Unilateral
Institutional infighting
(Perceived) infeasibility
Delayed development
[Remains to be seen]
"The second blow to Drexler came only two days later, when President Bush signed the 21st Century Nanotechnology Research and Development Act, allocating $3.7 billion for molecular-scale R&D. In the months leading up to the signing, the bill had promised to catapult Drexler’s agenda to the forefront of the nation’s scientific priorities. But in the end, no money was earmarked for molecular manufacturing. Instead, the funds were largely allocated to projects using variations on conventional chemistry to develop novel materials."
Remarkable case of scientific infighting resulting in the 'discrediting' of more advanced [and transformative] scientific projects, in favour of incremental / near-term use cases

https://www.wired.com/2004/10/drexler/

NASA research into nuclear-powered systems for long range space missions

2003-2005
US
Unilateral
Cost
Abandoned development
Other demands on NASA budget
2002-2014
US
Unilateral
2000s

[military acquisitions study]


https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/339/

2000-2007
Syria
Imposed
External interference (attack)
Unknown
Abandoned development
Israeli bombardment of reactor; unknown what is current status, but Syrian war has likely routed funding away
1992-1995?
Aum Shinrikyo (program run in Australian outback)
Unilateral
(Perceived) infeasibility
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Abandoned development
"8 During visits to Russia, Aum leaders consulted Russian scientists in order to obtain laser and nuclear technologies. The group was also believed by some to have shown interest in purchasing fissile materials from Russia.49 Through its network, Aum Shinrikyo successfully recruited over 300 scientists and engineers—including employees at the Kurchatov Institute"

Legacy Soviet weapons

1991-1995
Kazakhstan
Unilateral
Norms
Public protest
Relinquished/dismantled
Kazakhstan inherited Soviet arsenal, but never had operational control over the weapons

Legacy Soviet weapons

1991-1994
Ukraine
Unilateral
Treaty commitments
Relinquished/dismantled
Ukraine inherited about one-third of the Soviet nuclear arsenal, but never had operational control over the nuclear weapons; however, did reportedly explore options to attain such control. Eventually, Ukraine voted to denuclearize (against public support), and ratified NPT
Plausible case that Ukraine could have made stronger play for retaining arsenal and acquiring control

Rifle firing caseless ammunition

1990s
Germany
Unilateral
Political shock/change (regime change)
Cost
Abandoned development

"ubiquitous computing" paradigm

1988-present

Heavy ground effect planes, invisible to radar/sonar, with anti-ship missiles

1987-late 1990s
USSR/Russia
Unilateral
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Political shock/change (regime change)
Relinquished/dismantled
though a few prototypes were operated, seemed to fall out of favour

Space-based missile defence, using swarms of kinetic impactor satelites

1987-1993
US
Unilateral
Cost
Abandoned development

Nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers

1987-1991
US, USSR, [INF Treaty]
Coordinated
Formal agreement
Arms race concern
Treaty commitments
Relinquished/dismantled
Led to the of destruction of 2,692 short-, medium-, and intermediate-range missiles by the treaty's implementation deadline of June 1, 1991. However, US withdrew in 2019.

'Combat satellite': space-based laser weapon for ballistic missile defense. Part of Strategic Defense Initiative.

1987-1989
US
Unilateral
Arms race concern
Treaty commitments
(Perceived) infeasibility
Abandoned development
"By 1989, when the General Accounting Office examined the program, every component was a year or more behind schedule. A skeptical Democratic Congress refused to fully fund a program they thought both impractical and dangerous—dangerous especially to arms-control treaties."

https://books.google.dk/books?id=Inf1CAAAQBAJ&pg=PA28&lpg=PA28&dq=zenith+star+satellite&source=bl&ots=d7W6eI8N4-&sig=Tu0QmaCB6Yvo2up8cucweSoB4E4&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=zenith%20star%20satellite&f=false and

Develop full human-level machine intelligence

1983-1993
US (DARPA)
Unilateral
(Perceived) infeasibility
Institutional culture
Abandoned development
Cancelled because of perceived failure, and institutional focus on more concrete projects -- "The project was superseded in the 1990s by the Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative and then by the Advanced Simulation and Computing Program. These later programs did not include artificial general intelligence as a goal, but instead focused on supercomputing for large scale simulation, such as atomic bomb simulations."
1983-1991
Algeria
Unilateral
Unknown
Abandoned development
Secretly acquired a reactor -- but..

Supposed "epoch-making supercomputer"

1982-1992
Japan
Unilateral
Obsolete (against rival capabilities)
(Perceived) infeasibility
Delayed effective use
Project went ahead, but failed to achieve goals; after conclusion, funding was cut back -- "After the FGCS Project, MITI stopped funding large-scale computer research projects, and the research momentum developed by the FGCS Project dissipated"
1981-2011
US
Unilateral
Risk/safety concern
Cost
Relinquished/dismantled
Bush administration

Anti-ballistic missile "nuclear shotgun": utilize nuclear explosions to accelerate kinetic impactors to 70-100km/sec

1980s
US
Unilateral
(Perceived) infeasibility
Abandoned development

For use by cosmonauts; damage optical devices and cause eye injuries

1980's
USSR
Unilateral
Political shock/change (regime change)
Abandoned development
Abandoned during Perestrojka

Space-based missile defense using thermonuclear-bomb powered X-ray lasers. Part of Strategic Defense Initiative.

1980-1992
US
Unilateral
(Perceived) infeasibility
Abandoned development
Highly costly; seemed decades away
could illustrate policy reactions if a costly AGI program runs into repeated barriers

Various proposals

1980
US
Unilateral
Norms
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Risk/safety concern
Cost
Delayed development
Non-use/deployment
ICBM Basing Study
Possible redundancy

ICBM Basing Study

ICBM basing option: anchoring encapsulated ICBM missiles to the coastal seabed for survivability; on command, they rise to the surface and launch

1980
US
Unilateral
Coordinated
Treaty commitments
Decided against development
Explicitly argued against in early studies, on the grounds that deployment would violate the Treaty on Prohibition of Employment of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction on the Seabed and Ocean Floor and in the Subsoil Thereof (signed 1971)

Utilizing psychic phenomena for reconnaissance and intelligence

1978-1995
US
Unilateral
(Perceived) infeasibility
Abandoned development
Pretty infeasible: surprise it took them so long to cancel it
1978-1990
Argentina
Unilateral
Abandoned development
1978-1989
Romania

Bleek 2017

Civilian supersonic passenger airliner

1976-2003
UK
Unilateral
Risk/safety concern
Cost
1975-1991
Iraq
Imposed
External interference (attack)
Abandoned development

Bleek 2017

1975-1990s
Digital/IT
Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)
Cost
Delayed use
Limited horizontal spread or proliferation
initial slow spread

Soviet space shuttle

1974-1993
USSR
Unilateral
Political shock/change (regime change)
Relinquished/dismantled
One (unmanned) flight in 1988; project ended by dissolution of Soviet Union.
Lesson: legacy flagship projects can easily be mothballed in times of political upheaval / transfer
Buran may have been more of a prestige program
1974-1979, 1984-present
Iran
Coordinated
Formal agreement
External interference (attack)
External pressure / bargaining
Delayed development
[Remains to be seen]

Bleek 2017; for application to AGI, see https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kipMvuaK3NALvFHc9/what-an-actually-pessimistic-containment-strategy-looks-like

Role-playing games

1974
Inadvertent & unwitting
Societal culture
Delayed development

https://antonhowes.substack.com/p/age-of-invention-where-be-dragons

1972-
1970s?
US
Unilateral
Institutional infighting
Abandoned development
Mostly gutted through institutional infighting; redundancy with Navy missile subs

Laser tank

1970s-1980s
USSR
Unilateral
Political shock/change (regime change)
Cost
Abandoned development
System was highly effective at burning out the sensors of other tanks and missile systems. However, it used artificial rubies in its focusing system, which made it very expensive; only 2 were made, and the project was cancelled at the end of the Cold War

Strategic long-range bomber

1970s
US
Unilateral
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Institutional infighting
Delayed development

[military acquisitions study] https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/339/

1970-2003
Libya
Unilateral
External pressure / bargaining
Abandoned development

Bleek 2017

Distributed decision support infrastructure, based on cybernetics principles, to aid in management of the economy

1970-1973
Chile
Imposed
Political shock/change (regime change)
External interference (attack)
Relinquished/dismantled
It proved highly useful in October 1972, during a strike of 40,000 truck drivers, when it organized the transport of resources using only 200 strike-breaker drivers. After a military coup in 1973, the junta destroyed the operations room, and the project was abandoned.
Unclear how valuable it would have been
Military coups might derail, rather than continue, even strategically key projects
1970
Inadvertent & unwitting
Societal culture
Delayed development
1969-1981
South Korea
Unilateral
External pressure / bargaining
Political shock/change (regime change)
Abandoned development
ended under US pressure (1975) Restarted 1976, ended again after coup in 1981 Reagan pressure and security guarantee

Bleek 2017

Giant airborne aircraft carrier, nuclear-powered

1969
Decided against development

Civilian supersonic passenger airliner

1968 (first flight), 1975-1978 (passenger service), -1983 (retired)
USSR
Unilateral
Risk/safety concern
Cost
Relinquished/dismantled
Major accidents (including at Paris air show); poor fuel economy
Major safety incidents soured public image
1967-1991
South Africa
Unilateral
Political shock/change (regime change)
Institutional culture
Relinquished/dismantled
Delayed effective use
1967-1976, 1987-1988
Taiwan
Unilateral
1967-1972
Japan
Unilateral
Norms
Decided against development

Bleek 2017

Weather control. Military cloud seeding in Vietnam War to extend monsoon season and disrupt Vietcong operations. Increasing local rainfall by an estimated thirty percent during 1967 and 1968.

1967-1972
US
Unilateral
Public protest
Institutional infighting
Relinquished/dismantled
"Reporter Jack Anderson published a story in March 1971 concerning Operation Popeye (though in his column, it was called Intermediary-Compatriot). The name Operation Popeye (Pop Eye) entered the public space through a brief mention in the Pentagon Papers and a July 3, 1972, article in the New York Times. Operations in Laos ceased two days after the publication of the Times article. The press stories led to demands from members of the U.S. Congress, led by Senator Claiborne Pell, for more information. U.S. House and Senate resolutions in favor of banning environmental warfare were passed as Senate Resolution 71 on July 11, 1973, H.R. 116 of 1974, H.R. 329 of 1974 and H.R. 28 of 1975."
1966-1990
Brazil
Unilateral
No use case / demand
Treaty commitments
Cost
Abandoned development

Bleek 2017

Soviet Peaceful Nuclear Explosion program

1965-1989
USSR
Unilateral
Risk/safety concern
Delayed development
Relinquished/dismantled
"The USSR did not immediately follow the U.S. lead in 1958 in establishing a program. Presumably, their position in support of a comprehensive nuclear testing ban stalled any efforts to establish such a program until the mid-1960s."

Jet-powered hovertrain

1965-1977
France
Unilateral
Political priorities
Cost
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Abandoned development
"In 1974, after his election as President of France, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing formally annulled the contract for the Aérotrain Cergy-La Défense line[6] and SNCF formally shifted support to the TGV as its high-speed ground-transportation solution. Notably, D'Estaing's wife was the granddaughter of Eugène Schneider, founder of what became an international syndicate, Schneider Group. Noted Belgian journalist Karel Vereycken pointed out: "the Schneider dynasty have been and are still a pillar of the history of the French railroad and steel industry. Hence, the innovation of the Aérotrain (to be built by the aircraft industry) would not, in the short run, have made them more wealthy and one can easily imagine that a train without wheels does not get much enthusiastic approval of the feudal wheel producers." Rohr abandoned the technology in 1975." also abandoned due to success of TGV
Interesting case of potential state leader conflict of interest scuttling a tech

Military one-man rocket-powered hopper

1965-1968
France
Unilateral
(Perceived) infeasibility
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Abandoned development

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576509005153

1964-1967
Indonesia
Unilateral

(Recognition as promising research direction)

1963-2000s
Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)
Inadvertent & unwitting
(Perceived) infeasibility
Delayed development
Both hardware and software (eg programming languages like Lisp and Prolog) steered research towards symbolic AI. "This essay introduces the term hardware lottery to describe when a research idea wins because it is suited to the available software and hard- ware and not because the idea is superior to alternative research directions. Examples from early computer science history illustrate how hardware lotteries can delay research progress by casting successful ideas as failures."

"Hardware Lottery"

Military space station, with potential 'negation' (A-SAT interception) capabilities

1963-1969
US
Unilateral
Institutional infighting
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Abandoned development
CIA opposition (in order to Soviets did deploy Almaz-6

Nuclear warhead delivery system using a low earth orbit

1962-1983, (modern revival?)
USSR, [China?]
Coordinated
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Treaty commitments
Relinquished/dismantled
Interesting case-- in the end, USSR did disarm even though US didn't ratify However, in 2021, China tested a potential FOBS system.

Weather control: reduce the strength of hurricanes

1962-1983
US
Abandoned development
At the time, believed to have been succesfull; more recent data suggests it did not have much effect.

Planned Soviet moonbase for 6-12 crew

1962-1974
USSR
Unilateral
Cost
Decided against development

Soviet internet

1962-1970
USSR
Unilateral
Institutional culture
Abandoned development
Disfavored by Communist Party, because of inability to maintain centralized political control of system

Super-heavy ICBM capable of delivering 100MT yield warheads

1962-1965
USSR
Unilateral
Institutional culture
Political shock/change (regime change)
Cost
Abandoned development
"Khrushchev's comment was 'what should we build - communism or silos for the UR-500?' " After Krushcev was ousted, the base platform was converted into a civilian program -- highly successful Proton missile

http://www.astronautix.com/p/proton.html

Giant bipedal robot, controlled by operator, intended for use in Vietnam War

1962-1964
US (General Electric)
Lack of stability led to focus on quadrupedal system-- then abandoned because of fuel needs

https://www.businessinsider.com/ge-military-robots-2016-3

US program to explore Peaceful Nuclear Explosions for infrastructure (e.g. to blast canals)

1961-1977
US
Unilateral
Public protest

Giant ekranoplan (ground effect plane)

1961-1966 (last crashed in 1980)
USSR
Unilateral
No use case / demand
Political shock/change (regime change)
Delayed effective use
Relinquished/dismantled
Difficult to operate, maintenance, high turn distance,only operate in calm sea conditions Brezhnev was more conservative

Artificial ionosphere, by launching 480 million copper needles into orbit

1961-1963
US (MIT)
Unilateral
Public protest
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Abandoned development
Relinquished/dismantled
1961
USSR
Unilateral
Cost
Institutional infighting
Arms race concern
Delayed development
In 1961, at a time when US intelligence anticipated a missile gap of up to 1,000 Soviet ICBMS, in practice the Soviets had 4. Program was far slower, reportedly because Krushev wanted to avoid ruinous arms race However, later humiliation led to large-scale Soviet ICBM production
Remarkable restraint given the circumstances (and given US perceptions of missile gap; however, after Krushev's deposing, restraint rapidly failed

Ellsberg 2017

'Nuclear lasers': shaped nuclear charges to generate directional explosions (high-velocity plasma jets) as space weapons/ballistic missile defense

1960s, 1980s
US
Unilateral
(Perceived) infeasibility
Abandoned development
?
1960's-1990's
India
Unilateral
Cost
Institutional infighting
Delayed development
Non-use/deployment
... [India initially rejected] Eventually pursued a 'nuclear program option'. Went nuclear in 1990's
Strong counterexample to realist accounts of security dilemma or arms race -- but did eventually go nuclear

Sagan 1996; Curtice 2021; Bleek 2017

Ground-based missile defense

1960's-1970s
US
Coordinated
Formal agreement
Unilateral
Treaty commitments
Public protest
Institutional infighting
Abandoned development
Relinquished/dismantled

Assault rifle

1960's
US
Unilateral
Institutional culture
Delayed effective use
Delayed development
Interesting case
Suggestive of how inter-institutional biases could scuttle AGI project transfer

space-plane --

1960's

Large supersonic passenger airliner

1960-1971
US
Unilateral
Cost
Risk/safety concern
Public protest
Abandoned development
Concerns over sonic booms and effects on the ozone layer

Giant civilian hovercraft

1959-2000
UK company
Cost
Relinquished/dismantled
1970s fuel prices etc.

Military moon base

1959
US
Unilateral
Institutional infighting
Decided against development
"Horizon never progressed past the feasibility stage, being rejected by President Dwight Eisenhower when primary responsibility for America's space program was transferred to the civilian agency NASA."

Low-yield thermonuclear weapons designed to maximize lethal neutron radiation in the immediate vicinity of the blast

1958-2003
US, USSR, France, China
Coordinated
Informal agreement
Risk/safety concern
Public protest
Non-use/deployment
However, still briefly deployed on a range of sites, and kept in reserve

Project to detonate a nuclear bomb on the moon

1958
US

Wingless VTOL aircraft

1958
France

Primitive fusion power: use of thermonuclear bombs in underground cavities for power generation

1957-1975
US
Unilateral
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Cost
Abandoned development
Technically feasible, but "It would require a continuous supply of nuclear bombs and contemporary economics studies demonstrated that these could not be produced at a competitive price compared to conventional energy sources."
1957-1958
West Germany
Unilateral
Political shock/change (regime change)
Abandoned development
Attempted to develop program in collaboration with France; but ---
1956-1973
Australia
Unilateral
Abandoned development

Inflatable airplane

1956-1972
Suboptimal performance of early models
No use case / demand

Intended first orbiting satellite

1956-1958
US
Unilateral
Norms
Delayed use
US could have beaten Sputnik, as US Army already had satellite launch capability in 1956; but Eisenhower committed to the [slower] civilian Vanguard program in order to avoid the perception that the US was militarizing space.
Remarkable effect of norms on on-use; however, possibly based on misjudgment of how long it would take the Soviets to catch up; after Sputnik, the US immediately raced. Even if the Soviets hadn’t launched, the US would have deployed the civilian Vanguard program by 1958 (Explorer 1; part of the International Geophysical Year)
Value of emphasizing potential 'prestige' projects, and preventing militarization

Barnhart 2021; https://www.inventionandtech.com/content/how-america-chose-not-beat-sputnik-space-0

1955-1980
Egypt
Unilateral
Institutional culture
Cost
Abandoned development

Bleek 2017

1955-1958
Italy
Unilateral

10-gigaton yield nuclear bombs (670,000 times Hiroshima)

1954
US (Proposed by Edward Teller)
Unilateral
Risk/safety concern
Institutional culture
Decided against development

http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2012/09/12/in-search-of-a-bigger-boom/

Low proliferation risk nuclear reactors

1950s-1970s
Institutional culture
Political priorities
Delayed development
In very early years, focus on reactors that could support proliferation. Focus was instead on liquid-metal fast breeder reactors.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.13182/NT70-A28619


https://energyfromthorium.com/2011/12/23/techtalk-why-tmsr/


https://energyfromthorium.com/timeline/


Onboard nuclear generators for indefinite-range aircraft

1950s-1961
US
Unilateral
Risk/safety concern
Cost
Abandoned development

Nuclear pulse spacecraft propulsion

1950s-1960s
US
Unilateral
Treaty commitments
Institutional culture
Risk/safety concern
Abandoned development
NASA disliked it; 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty

Mutation breeding of crops by plant irradiation

1950s-1960s
US, world
Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)
Norms
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Societal culture
Diminished use

http://www.atomicgardening.com/1966/03/01/whatever-happened-to-the-atomic-garden/

computer programming language statement, performs a one-way transfer of control to another line of code

1950s - 1970s
Programmers
Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)
Risk/safety concern
Diminished use
Dijkstra "go-to considered harmful" letter 1968, blocked it

Asymmetric oblique-wing aircraft

1950s

Mustard

Nuclear-powered ramjet engine for indefinite-range cruise missiles capable of months-long stand-off flight

1950's
US
Unilateral
Risk/safety concern
Arms race concern
Abandoned development
1949-1962, 1974-1987
Yugoslavia
Unilateral
Abandoned development

Bleek 2017

Giant amphibious transport/assault submarines

1948 - 1960s (Project 664 in 1964)
Soviet Union
Unilateral
Institutional culture
Abandoned development
Decided against development
1947-1962
Norway
Unilateral
Decided against development
explored it, but eventually abandoned

Bleek 2017

1945-1970
Sweden
Coordinated
Formal agreement
Treaty commitments
Decided against development
explored it, but eventually abandoned. Got very close

Bleek 2017

1945-1969
Switzerland
Decided against development

Bleek 2017

(see nation-specific entries)

1945 - present
of 56(69?) states with capability; 10 went nuclear; 7 ran but abandoned a nuclear program; 14-22 considered but declined to pursue
Unilateral
Coordinated
Decided against development
Abandoned development
Limited horizontal spread or proliferation
Delayed development
(see specific entries)
Remarkable restraint, given ex ante expectations that the 'ultimate weapon' would proliferate uncontrollably
Nuclear weapons programs costly, whereas AI would have profitable applications

Van der Meer 2011, 2014

Submarine aircraft carrier

1943-1945
Japan
Imposed
External interference (attack)
Relinquished/dismantled
Only 3 produced out of 18. Japanese loss of WW2, last subs scuttled by US Navy

‘Unsinkable’ wood-pulp/ice aircraft carrier

1942-1943
UK
Unilateral
Cost
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Abandoned development
Range improvements in land-based fighters, as well as the costs of constructing one
Viable project, but overtaken

Radiological weapons

1941 - present?
US, USSR, Iraq, UK, (Egypt?, North Korea?)
Unilateral
(Perceived) infeasibility
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Institutional infighting
Institutional culture
Risk/safety concern
Abandoned development
Their use had been viewed as inevitable or even necessary

Meyer et al. 2020

Flying tank

1940s
USSR
Unilateral
Suboptimal performance of early models
Abandoned development

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20221020-the-tank-that-could-fly-into-battle?utm_source=pocket_mylist

Flying tank

1940s
UK
Unilateral
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Suboptimal performance of early models
Abandoned development

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20221020-the-tank-that-could-fly-into-battle?utm_source=pocket_mylist

1939-1945
Nazi Germany
Unilateral
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Risk/safety concern
(Perceived) infeasibility
Abandoned development
During wartime; redundancy of "ultimate weapon"; partially motivated by X-risk concerns

Rhodes; Speer -- Ellsberg

Super-heavy battleships

1938-1941
Japan
Unilateral
Cost
Obsolete (against rival capabilities)
Abandoned development

Ornithopter

1937-1938
France
Suboptimal performance of early models
External interference (attack)
Abandoned development

Flying aircraft carrier

1931-1942
USSR
Unilateral
Obsolete (against rival capabilities)
Relinquished/dismantled

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zveno_project

rocket-powered bomber

1930s
Germany
Unilateral
(Perceived) infeasibility
Abandoned development

1930s
UK

https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/10548535

1930's-1940's
Axis powers
Unilateral
Institutional culture
Cost
Decided against development
Delayed development
Interesting case where the restraint decision appears to have been 'correct', because strategic bombing arguably did not work (Biddle 2004). Only in US and UK, Air Force 'cult of bombing' ('the bomber always gets through') emphasized doctrine of strategic bombing. By contrast, Germany and others emphasized doctrine of tactical (combined-arms) bombing, did not initially develop heavy bombers (exception for Germany: HE 177; shelved plans for 'Amerikabomber') Germany and Japan also did not have the fuel reserves to operate large fleets of heavy bombers

Ellsberg 2017 / https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-nazi-germanys-only-long-range-heavy-bomber-was-flammable-disaster-78061


Biddle 2004 on strategic bombing


Pape 'Bombing to Win'


Chlorofluorocarbons, widely used as refrigerants, propellants (in aerosol applications), and solvents.

1920's-1987
197 countries [Montreal Protocol]
Coordinated
Formal agreement
Treaty commitments
Risk/safety concern
Diminished use
Global emissions of ozone-depleting substances have declined by more than 99% since 1986 (the year before international action was agreed).
Universal adoption, significant reduction
1920-present
Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Delayed development

First aircraft carriers

1918-1940s
UK
Inadvertent & unwitting
Institutional culture
Redundant (w/ other capabilities)
Delayed effective use
Counterargument --

Horowitz 2018, but see Kuo 2021

Private or merchant transport submarines, to evade blockades and/or utilize sub-arctic shipping routes

1916-1918 (Germany), 1942-1944 (Italy), 1990 (Soviet Union)
Germany, Italy, Soviet Union
Unilateral
Imposed
Political shock/change (regime change)
External interference (attack)
Limited horizontal spread or proliferation
Relinquished/dismantled
Brief usage during second world war. Soviet plans derailed by end of Soviet Union Today, some use of illegal narcotics submarines, but limited

air conditioning

1906-present
[consumers]
Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)
Delayed use

https://www.inventionandtech.com/content/cold-comfort-0

1900s
US
Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)
Institutional culture
Delayed development
"In 1900, steam, internal combustion, and electric motors each powered roughly equal numbers of automobiles in the US and around the world. At the time, it appeared that the electric motor was poised to become the dominant automotive technology; yet "the aspiration for touring" by early consumers eventually drove the industry towards a decisive adoption of the internal combustion engine instead." - also role of gendered perceptions of electric cars
Though could also be described as failure to contain internal combustion

...

'Why internal combustion?' https://www.inventionandtech.com/content/why-internal-combustion-1

1900-1937, (modern revival?)
Obsolete (against rival capabilities)
Risk/safety concern
Diminished use
Delayed development
1891 (first newspaper) - 1970s (widespread adoption)
Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)
Institutional culture
Delayed use

https://www.scienceandmediamuseum.org.uk/objects-and-stories/history-colour-photography


https://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/08/nyregion/08artsnj.html

AC Current

1880s-1890s
US
Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)
Institutional infighting
Edison sought to delay the widespread adoption of DC until he was able to divest his investments from sections of the electricity market that were likely to be taken over by the new technology. -- deployed stigmatization to spark public objection

Juma Innovation and its enemies

Insecticide

1874 (synthesized) / 1945 (used as insecticide) - present
US (1974 ban), [Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants] (2004 global ban)
Unilateral
Coordinated
Formal agreement
Risk/safety concern
Public protest
Treaty commitments
Diminished use
Only moderate success; available data on global production of DDT showed a 32% decline between 2001-2014

Bayonet with incorporated saw teeth on the spine of the blade

1865-1917
Germany
Informal agreement
Unilateral
Norms
Relinquished/dismantled
Most countries had phased out by 1900. During WWI, Germany unilaterally withdrew use of 'barbarous' sawback bayonet because of perception amongst opposing troops that it inflicted particularly horrendous injuries
by WWI, was already seen as outmoded; other militaries had abandoned them by 1900

Brundage et al. 2020; https://www.un.org/disarmament/publications/occasionalpapers/unoda-occasional-papers-no-30-november-2017/

Modern land mines

1862-present
[Ottawa Convention]
Coordinated
Formal agreement
Norms
Treaty commitments
Public protest
Diminished use
1840
Unilateral
(Perceived) infeasibility
Abandoned development
Not built because he had difficulty fabricating parts with correct precision
1817
Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)
Not perceived (low-hanging fruit)
Suboptimal performance of early models
No use case / demand
Delayed development
...

https://rootsofprogress.org/why-did-we-wait-so-long-for-the-bicycle

1800s
France
Unilateral
Institutional culture
Delayed effective use
Relevant case of how 'leading' countries might achieve e.g. CAIS, but fail to push through to full AGI

Horowitz 2010; Drezner 2019

1793 (Eli Whitney's cotton gin)
US
Inadvertent & unwitting
Not perceived (low-hanging fruit)
Delayed development
...
...

https://rootsofprogress.org/why-did-we-wait-so-long-for-the-cotton-gin

1783
Montgolfier (France)
Inadvertent & unwitting
Unknown
Delayed development
Conceivably could have been invented decades or even centuries earlier; all basic materials (textile quality), and techniques (flying shuttle) had been around for decades or centuries; and the first balloon did not involve deep physical understanding.

https://lostfutures.substack.com/p/why-werent-hot-air-balloons-invented

Mechanized grinding of flour

1636 (patent by Sir John Christopher van Berg); late 1700s (UK use); 1800s (US use)
UK
Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)
(Perceived) infeasibility
Delayed development
....
...
...

https://rootsofprogress.org/why-did-we-wait-so-long-for-the-threshing-machine

1607-1867
Tokugawa Shogunate, Japan
Unilateral
Delayed development
Remarkably long-lasting; however, required severe isolation, and failed under outside (US) pressure
Shows superior viability of production-level (rather than e.g. civilian possession) bans, but not global

Dafoe 2015

Mechanized wood-sawing (eg using wind-power)

1600s-1820s
England
Inadvertent & unwitting
Unilateral
Institutional culture
Norms
Delayed development
Delayed use
Limited horizontal spread or proliferation
Delayed because of widespread, near-universal belief that labour-saving inventions had been made illegal due to the resulting unemployment. "In 1759, the Society of Arts actually conducted an investigation into whether or not saw mills were illegal, given that it was almost universally believed, but found no evidence to justify it (they then proposed a premium to reward the introduction of sawmills into England)."
Not directly relevant given very different societal attitudes towards innovation

Cooney, 1991; and https://www.antonhowes.com/blog/is-innovation-in-human-nature

Flushable toilets

1596-19th century
Health
Other
Inadvertent & unwitting
Missing complementary & enabling technologies
Limited horizontal spread or proliferation
1405-1433, 1470 (records destroyed to avoid repetition),
Ming China
Unilateral
Institutional infighting
Cost
Relinquished/dismantled
? -1500s CE
American civilizations & Mesoamerican civilizations (Maya, Inca)
Unilateral
No use case / demand
(Perceived) infeasibility
Non-use/deployment
Largely unused until introduced through European contact. Some societies were familiar with concept of wheel (e.g. Inca used round stones in construction projects; wheels in toys), but had little use given features of ecosystem (mountainous geography), and lack of large domesticated animals
? - 28,000 BCE
Inadvertent & unwitting
Not perceived (low-hanging fruit)
Delayed development
Humans were behaviourally modern from 50,000 BCE; conceivably materials were available-- so it is unclear why it was not developed for potentially tens of thousands of years

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_historic_inventions#Paleolithic


https://meteuphoric.com/2017/12/28/why-did-everything-take-so-long/

[set of norms outlawing use of which]

-1000BCE
Indian states [Laws of Manu]
Coordinated
Formal agreement
Norms
Treaty commitments
Unknown
-300BCE - 476AD
Roman Empire
Inadvertent & unwitting
External interference (attack)
Lost
-285BCE (first work on science of compressed air in pumps by Ctesibius); 1st century AD (Aeolipile mechanical device by Hero of Alexandria); 1690s (Thomas Savery's engine)
Inadvertent & unwitting
Delayed development
General-purpose technology

Anton Howes: -- I

https://antonhowes.substack.com/p/age-of-invention-why-wasnt-the-steam

II:

https://antonhowes.substack.com/p/age-of-invention-why-wasnt-the-steam-cc8

III:

https://antonhowes.substack.com/p/age-of-invention-why-wasnt-the-steam-76c?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=18480&post_id=75599725&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

An improvement to the loom, which radically increased the productivity of weaving

-3,500BCE (feasible) - 1733 (invented)
Virtually all societies from ancient Egypt onwards
Inadvertent & unwitting
Not perceived (low-hanging fruit)
Delayed development
"Anton Howes notes: "As the inventor Bennet Woodcroft put it, weaving with an ordinary shuttle had been “performed for upwards of five thousand years, by millions of skilled workmen, without any improvement being made to expedite the operation, until the year 1733”. All Kay added was some wood and some string. And he applied it to weaving wool, which had been England’s main industry since the middle ages. He had no special skill, he required no special understanding of science for it, and he faced no special incentive to do it.""
Took surprisingly long to conceive of it, but once demonstrated most societies adopted
AGI already 'imagined '

Howes 2017 https://www.antonhowes.com/blog/is-innovation-in-human-nature

-3,500BCE
Inadvertent & unwitting
Not perceived (low-hanging fruit)
Delayed development
Considering the general utility, and the availability of basic materials, it took a surprisingly long time for many societies to develop the wheel. However, the development of axles may have required metal tools;
Took surprisingly long to conceive of it, given availability of materials, but once demonstrated most societies adopted
AGI already 'imagined'

Katja Grace; https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-it-took-so-long-to-inv/

-3,000BCE - 1,500BCE
(Caucasus)
Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)
Political shock/change (regime change)
Societal culture
Diminished use
Caucasus was one of the first places in the world to use gold; yet social changes resulted in precipitous decline of gold objects

Erb-Satullo 2021

US, USSR
Coordinated
Informal agreement
Delayed development
Delayed use
However, recent years have seen more tests
UK
[Remains to be seen]
[Environmental Modification Convention]
Banned in about 70 countries
Unilateral
Coordinated
Norms

Nuclear cars, etc.

US

Augmented-reality glasses

Google
Public protest
Delayed use
[Remains to be seen]
Relinquished/dismantled
[Convention on Cluster Munitions]
Norms
Treaty commitments
Public protest
Diminished use

Power lines and generators

Thomson-Houston (US)
Unilateral
Risk/safety concern
Delayed use
One of the early electricy companies, Thomson-Houston, decided to hold back on growing parts of its infastructure, due to the danger it felt the higher-voltage AC electrical lines could pose to smaller clients, like residential homes.

Higonnet, Patrice L. R.; Landes, David S.; Rosovsky, Henry (1991). Favorites of Fortune: Technology, Growth, and Economic Development Since the Industrial Revolution. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press. pg 89

EU
Limited horizontal spread or proliferation

Grotto

[Chemical Weapons Convention]
Limited horizontal spread or proliferation
[Biological Weapons Convention]
Limited horizontal spread or proliferation
Abandoned development
Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)

[Graeber & ]...

Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)
Risk/safety concern
Cost
Delayed development
Mostly interesting because of early historical imaginaries-- anticipation that this would be an 'obvious' technology of the future

Nuclear power

Australia, Austria, Denmark, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Estonia, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Philippines, Portugal and Serbia

Nuclear-powered cruise liners

US

Next generation assault rifle, modular

US

Airborne aircraft carrier

Handheld tactical nuclear weapon launcher

Neural Networks

Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)
Delayed development

Sarah Hooker -

https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.06489

[vid]

https://www.reddit.com/r/history/comments/h127hu/given_the_relative_simplicity_of_boltaction/

https://www.reddit.com/r/history/comments/gejd1p/what_was_preventing_the_expansion_of_the_honey/

https://antonhowes.substack.com/p/age-of-invention-getting-into-hot?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=18480&post_id=79993018&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

Societally decentralized (public choice; market forces)
Delayed development

https://antonhowes.substack.com/p/age-of-invention-the-beacons-are

Delayed development

https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/why-did-we-wait-so-long-for-wind

flying jeep

https://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2022/12/the-race-to-create-working-practical-personal-jetpacks/

Delayed development

https://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2022/12/the-race-to-create-working-practical-personal-jetpacks/

Gravity propulsion research

US
Abandoned development

Stateless computers

Diminished use
Insistent / Repeated Development
Insistent / Repeated Development
Delayed use

Script

The Pentagon's Brain

Lost
Lost
Lost
Delayed development
Insistent / Repeated Development
Health

Alert

Lorem ipsum
Okay