D. M. Smith, N. J. Dunstone, R. Eade, S. C. Hardiman, L. Hermanson, A. A. Scaife & M. Seabrook

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dominates winters in Western Europe and eastern North America. Future climate model projections of the NAO are highly uncertain due to both modelled irreducible internal variability and different model responses. Here we show that some of the model spread in multi-decadal NAO simulations is caused by climatological water vapour errors, and develop an emergent constraint that reveals a substantial response of the NAO to volcanic eruptions and greenhouse gases

Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Yves Tramblay, Fergus Reig, José C. González-Hidalgo, Santiago Beguería, Michele Brunetti, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Leonardo Patalen, Aleksandra Kržič, Piero Lionello, Miguel M. Lima, Ricardo M. Trigo, Ahmed M. El-Kenawy, Ali Eddenjal, Murat Türkes, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Veronica Manara, Maurizio Maugeri, Wafae Badi, Shifa Mathbout, Renato Bertalanič, Lilia Bocheva, Ismail Dabanli, Alexandru Dumitrescu, Brigitte Dubuisson, Salah Sahabi-Abed, Fayez Abdulla, Abbas Fayad,

State-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future1. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation2,3,4, with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anthropogenic influences3,5. Conversely, certain researchers have underlined that Mediterranean precipitation exhibits considerable spatiotemporal variabil