Manifest - Grid view
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Name
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Add yourself to this page!
2
Rachel Weinberg
3
Saul Munn
4
Austin Chen
5
Kirill Ivanov
6
Agnes Callard
7
Sydney Filler
8
Campbell Hutcheson
9
Anthony Deluca
10
Ricki Heicklen
11
Chris Lakin
12
Jean-Gabriel Young
13
James Vaughan
14
Matt Briselli
15
Rif A. Saurous
16
Adam Jarvis
17
Brendan Hurst
18
Damon P-Sasi / Daystar Eld
19
Daniel Filan
20
Jasmine Ren
21
Stefanie Shank
22
Stuart Buck
23
Leo Zovic
24
Ryan Bloom
25
Ian Joffe
26
Edward Druce
27
Adam Binks
28
Simone Collins
29
Malcolm Collins
30
Anthony Gao
31
Javier Prieto
32
Andreas Finke
33
Josh Sacks
34
Dave Kasten
35
Ben Goldhaber
36
Niko McCarty
37
Abigail Donahue
38
Chris Farina
39
Stephanie May
40
Tyler Tracy
41
Pat Scott
42
Christian Holland
43
Andrew McKnight
44
Anthony Edvalson
45
Ravi Parikh
46
Malcolm Jackson
47
Jackson Wagner
48
ellen ma
49
Jacob Seliger
50
River Bellamy
51
Yoav Tzfati
52
Josh Wight
53
Julius Simonelli
54
Maxwell Tabarrok
55
Dylan O'Connell
56
Ben Mann
57
Lennart Heim
58
Jack Zellweger
59
Zac Hatfield-Dodds
60
Skyler Crossman
61
Ermis Mitsou
62
Spencer Pearson
63
Iain Schmitt
64
Ameet Gaitonde
65
Michael Liu
66
Allison Duettmann
67
Dan Elton
68
Corinne Corinfinite
69
Oleg Eterevsky
70
Forrest Wolf
71
Ronan McGovern
72
Santeri Tani
73
John Bennett
74
Mackenzie Mikkelsen
75
Mackenzie Mikkelsen
76
Keerthana Kesavan
77
Holly Morgan
78
Peter McCluskey
79
Zane Stiles
80
Judd Rosenblatt
81
Judd Rosenblatt
82
N.C. Young
83
Rachel Freedman
84
Patrick Ward
85
Matthew Adelstein
86
Alexander Miller
87
Gage Weston
88
Fred Zhang
89
James Ausman
90
Theresa Barton
91
Xander Balwit
92
Shreeda Segan
93
Brandon Beckhardt
94
Daniel Reeves
95
Stephen Grugett
96
Pawel Sysiak
97
Brennan Robbins
98
Aaron Lehmann
99
Liam Robins
100
Quratul Aain Zainab
101
Madhu Sriram
102
Simeon Anfinrud
103
Nate Foss
104
Eric Neyman
105
Guenael Strutt
106
Kristóf Szabó
107
Zander Pear
108
Byrne Hobart
109
Michael Elias
110
Dave Guarino
111
Andressa Kanashiro
112
Charlie Mlcek
113
Isabel Juniewicz
114
Lucas Cabral Maciel
115
John Boyle
116
Jay Baxter
117
Tyson Ni
118
Gretta Duleba
119
Owain Evans
120
Gregory Shuflin
121
Haven Harms
122
Cassandra Melax
123
James Bailey
124
Bence Nagy
125
Ernest French
126
Michael Seaman
127
Lucas Kohorst
128
Warren Tan
129
Mike Lyons
130
Josh Morrison
131
Peter Hammon
132
Seenia Hong
133
Elliott Lehrer
134
Guive Assadi
135
Joey Kellison-Linn
136
Pratik Chougule
137
Fraser Lee
138
Andrew Peek
139
Ashley Andreone
140
Andrey Fradkin
141
Rob Miles
142
Jeffrey Fredrick
143
Mike Dodds
144
Anton Makiievskyi
145
Jake Eaton
146
Arkadiy Kossakovsky
147
Kevin Wang
148
Linch Zhang
149
Manifold User
150
Joel Becker
151
Liron Shapira
152
Paul Han
153
Logan Daniels
154
Paul Han
155
Stephen Wu
156
Jan Klenha
157
Patrick Ward
158
Misha Glouberman
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Guest
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Manifold username
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Show employment answers
Hogwarts House
Add yourself to this page!
bit.ly/manifest-attendee-form

(to edit your profile, resubmit with the same name)

Forecasting
Rachel Weinberg
Manifest Co-lead

I'm hoping that Manifest goes smoothly and everyone has a great time! The main way people can help make this happen is by acting prosocial in a bunch of small ways: being spontaneously generous and helpful, running cool side events, connecting people who should meet, asking good questions, and so on. Also let me know during the event what's bugging you and how we can make Manifest better!

Tell me if something about Manifest is bugging you and I might be able to fix it. Or if I can't fix it, I might be able to fix it for next year :)

Grantmaking
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Writing
rachel
@rachel
Hufflepuff
Saul Munn
Manifest Co-Lead, Philosophy Undergrad

I want to make Manifest awesome — you can help by telling me how I can make it awesome for you!

A great event :)

Forecasting
Finance
Grantmaking
Writing
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Rationality
Progress Studies
saulmunn
@saulmunn
@saulmunn
saulmunn.com
savvycal.com/saulmunn
saulsmunn@gmail.com
linkedin.com/in/saulmunn
Not looking for full-time offers, but potentially interested in collaborations, contracting, or consulting
Operations/etc
Austin Chen
Manifest, Manifund, ex-Manifold

Excited to throw this giant party with all my favorite people in the world. Thanks for coming, and I hope you make lifelong friends!

I know a bunch about websites, grants and events; always happy to share.

Forecasting
Effective Altruism
Writing
Grantmaking
Mechanism design
akrolsmir
AustinChen
akrolsmir
Slytherin
Kirill Ivanov
6G Researcher at Qualcomm

Meet bloggers and speakers in person, talk to like minded people and maybe find new friends and connections

Insights on modern wireless communications and some history knowledge with a bit of skepticism and moral relativism

Progress Studies
New Science
Rationality
Effective Altruism
Mechanism design
Journalism
Policy
Forecasting
Biotech
ruvonaki
https://www.instagram.com/ruvonaki/
Ravenclaw
Agnes Callard
Philosophy Professor

I want to better understand the role of prediction in everyday life and in philosophical argument. I also want to understand why some beliefs seem armored against updating.

Philosophical inquiry?

Progress Studies
Rationality
Effective Altruism
Writing
not on discord yet
@agnescallard
Sydney Filler
Quantitative Researcher at AQR

Hoping to meet others in finance interesting using prediction markets, generally excited to hang with EAs/rats/people in this sphere!

Perspective on use cases in finance

Effective Altruism
Writing
Rationality
Progress Studies
Finance
Business
N/A
sydney.filler@gmail.com
Ravenclaw
Campbell Hutcheson
Chief Product Officer at NormAi

Just want to meet interesting people!

I work in legal and regulatory technology. I used to be the Chief Compliance Officer of a public company. I have experience growing a company from small to large. So, I can give advice on anything related to any of that.

AI
campbell5765
CampbellHutcheson
FleetingBits
Ravenclaw
Anthony Deluca
Priest of Starlight - LSD, Hypnosis, MDMA and Other Blessings

I love anything beautiful. Show me the dawn.

Whatever danse fate has prepared for us, I'm ready to dance.

Forecasting
AI
Finance
Biotech
New Science
soleilnovak
soleilnovak
soleilnovak.substack.com
Message me on discord
instagram: soleilnovak gmail - sapphire.alysa.star
Not looking for full-time offers, but potentially interested in collaborations, contracting, or consulting
Hypnotherapy, Psychedelic Therapy
Hufflepuff
Ricki Heicklen
Chaos Muppet
  • I want to get better at sizing Manifold orders and detecting how sophisticated traders on a given market are
  • Can talk about trading, markets, incentives, and how to design systems to push us in directions we endorse
Forecasting
AI
Finance
Grantmaking
Mechanism design
Writing
Effective Altruism
Rationality
Progress Studies
tradegal_
RickiHeicklen
tradegal_
https://rickiheicklen.com/index.html
ricki.heicklen@gmail.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ricki-heicklen-b4b44796/
Actively seeking employment
Chris Lakin
physics of social interaction for humans & AIs

make friends with my energy

I have an Actually Good model of psychological growth. Lately I've started counseling people much of the way from insecure attachment to secure attachment in 3 hours. I charge for this though ("half of the value you get from it, as assessed by you in 3-12 months").

AI
Angel investing
Grantmaking
Writing
Mechanism design
Rationality
chrischipmonk
chrischipmonk
https://chrislakin.com/
chris@chrislakin.com
Jean-Gabriel Young
Assistant Professor of Statistics at University of Vermont

I want to meet the community first and foremost.

  • Can talk about predictive models with Bayesian statistics, complex systems, graph machine learning.
Forecasting
AI
New Science
Mechanism design
Writing
Progress Studies
JGY
jgyou
_jgyou
joint-lab.github.io
https://calendar.app.google/AD8re38KU5cuwuPr8
jeangabriel.young@gmail.com
Ravenclaw
James Vaughan
Software Engineer at Arcol

I'd like to learn more about prediction markets, how they'll impact society, and what the road to legality in the U.S. is looking like.

My main hard skill is building software, although I'm pretty booked on that front. Beyond that, I can offer good conversation.

Forecasting
Policy
Finance
Biotech
Writing
Progress Studies
jamesbvaughan
jamesbvaughan
jamesontheline
https://jamesbvaughan.com
https://calendar.notion.so/meet/jamesvaughan/rumdi4goo
james@jamesbvaughan.com
https://linkedin.com/in/jamesbvaughan
Open to offers, but not actively looking
Ravenclaw
Matt Briselli
Technical Program Manager

A good time.

A joke. Maybe a ride, or some local tips, especially if you’re visiting to SF.

Journalism
mattybbbbb
mattyb
never heard of her
nope
@MattBriselli on Venmo, send payments to get att’n
Slytherin
Rif A. Saurous
Principal Research Scientist at Google

I am interested in learning more about forecasting and related areas, and making new friends and collaborators. I am especially interested in meeting people involved with AI Safety, Policy Making, and similar, but actually excited to meet interesting people of all sorts.

I have decades of experience in AI and related fields. I am generally a good partner for bouncing either technical or organizational ideas off of. I do a lot of mentoring. I ask good questions.

AI
Forecasting
Business
Policy
Biotech
Writing
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Rationality
New Science
Progress Studies
rifasaurous
Signal: 510.504.6533, email: rifmeister@gmail.com
Not at all interested in offers
AI
Ravenclaw
Adam Jarvis
Superforecaster, Strategic Advisor

Connections, ideas, collaboration.

Navigating novelty, delivering change.

Forecasting
AI
Writing
Progress Studies
Policy
alethios
Alethios3
alethios.substack.com
ammjarvis@gmail.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-jarvis-3bb808200/
Open to offers, but not actively looking
Brendan Hurst
Gamemaster

I want to inject serendipity into my own life and others- beyond that I'm just trying to meet interesting people and ideas.

I've been here the whole time.

Forecasting
AI
Writing
Rationality
Mechanism design
hamiltonianurst
hamiltonianurst
hamiltonianurst
https://linktr.ee/hamiltonianurst
Ravenclaw
Damon P-Sasi / Daystar Eld
Therapist, Writer, Rationality Camp Director

Unsure yet. I'm doing pretty well, all things considered. If someone is looking for help with some psychology or therapy or rationality research or learning, my time is purchasable.

Anything related to therapy, psychology, fiction, game design, or rationality.

Rationality
Writing
Progress Studies
daystar_eld
@DaystarEld
daystareld.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/damon-pourtahmaseb-sasi-8b455746
Open to offers, but not actively looking
Therapy, Fiction, Research, Teaching
Ravenclaw
Daniel Filan
Unemployed Podcaster (AXRP)

Meet cool people. Beat Nate Silver at poker. Chat with friends who live out of town.

I know stuff about the AI existential safety research community.

AI
Rationality
Effective Altruism
Mechanism design
Journalism
danielfilan
@DanielFilan
@freed_dfilan
danielfilan.com
Jasmine Ren
community organizer & software engineer learning about the world
  • Trading is this mysterious black box for me. I want to ask many beginner questions and build up a workable model and leave Summer Camp and Manifest having actually made some trades.
  • I'll be hosting a session where I interview Kelsey Piper and June Kreml on their microschool in Oakland!
Rationality
Policy
Forecasting
Business
Biotech
Writing
Mechanism design
Progress Studies
New Science
N/A
JR
jasmine.m.ren@gmail.com
Stefanie Shank
Writer, Consultant, Community Manager, Coach

just here for the vibes

open to helping or collaborating wherever I can - just ask!

Forecasting
Business
Journalism
Angel investing
Grantmaking
Biotech
Writing
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Rationality
New Science
Progress Studies
AI
Policy
shankypanky_
shankypanky
stefaesthesia
Stuart Buck
Executive Director

I want to meet other like-minded people. Others can help me in the Good Science Project's mission if they can push for policy agendas at the federal level, or if they can connect me to potential donors.

I can provide advice on writing and on interacting with policymakers.

Policy
Grantmaking
Writing
Effective Altruism
New Science
Progress Studies
stuartbuck
stuartbuck1
goodscienceproject.org
https://meetings.hubspot.com/stuartbuck
Gryffindor
Leo Zovic
CTO at Mycroft Technologies

Mostly hang out and chat up interesting people. If I could wish for things, I'd want to thank Scott Alexander for his blog and maybe have a conversation with Joe Carlsmith about his subseries on Green. No other goals, I'm treating this as a fun vacation.

Man, this is a question right here. I'm a programmer with a history of studying datastructures and memory management systems, so if anyone wants to talk about that, I'm down. I love board games, so I'm down for being an extra player in Power Grid, Orleans, Root or the like. I'm a pretty decent Zouk lead, so I can help if anyone wants to cut a rug. If you want to talk about anything else, I can't guarantee I'll be the most knowledgeable, but I very probably won't judge you.

AI
Forecasting
Writing
Mechanism design
Rationality
inaimathi
inaimathi
inaimathi.ca
Hufflepuff
Ryan Bloom
Member of Technical Staff

Meet people. Have fun. Learn about cool stuff I've never heard of. Maybe figure out what to do with my life.

Always happy to be a sounding board for wild ideas.

AI
Grantmaking
Writing
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
New Science
rlb3
_ryanbloom
ryanbloom.xyz
ryan@ryanbloom.xyz
Ian Joffe
Grad Student at UChicago

Meet lots of interesting people, have great conversations, and have fun!

I'm studying statistics and machine learning, but will listen to you talk about your obsession about anything

Forecasting
AI
Mechanism design
Policy
Ian Joffe
ianj
@ian_joffe
iijoffe@gmail.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ian-joffe-bb4181192/
Open to offers, but not actively looking
Data Science and ML
Edward Druce
Co-Founder, Listening to the Other Side

Learn more about this world... I’m co-founding a diplomatic-journalistic publication. Lots of people tell me it should integrate forecasting. I’d love to get a precise idea how.

Anyone who is very into geopolitics...

Forecasting
Business
Journalism
Writing
-
@EdwardMDruce
https://lttos.org/
Ravenclaw
Adam Binks
Acting director at Sage

I run Sage - we make Fatebook (the fastest way to track your predictions) and Quantified Intuitions (rapid training tools for forecasting), as well as AI Digest. At Manifest, I want to:

1.
Excited to chat about forecasting with your team
Forecasting
AI
Policy
Effective Altruism
jellyberg
jellyberg
adambinks_
adambinks.me
https://calendly.com/adam-binks/30-min
adam@sage-future.org
Gryffindor
Simone Collins
Managing Director, Pragmatist Foundation, Pronatalist.org, and Collins Institute; CEO, Travelmax.

I'm always keen to nerd out with others on education reform, reproductive technology, demographic collapse, pronatalism, culture, religion, and more—plus I'm just keen to meet new people (and fellow parents!).

I may be able to connect people to helpful resources or information regarding reprotech (e.g. PGT-P, IVF), education reform, pronatlaism, antinatalism, travel (I'm the CEO of a travel management business), entrepreneurship through acquisition (aka search funds), and family/parenting stuff.

Business
Policy
Biotech
New Science
Rationality
Effective Altruism
Writing
NA
SimoneHCollins
SimoneHCollins
PragmatistFoundation.com
https://calendly.com/simonehcollins
https://www.instagram.com/simonehcollins/
Slytherin
Malcolm Collins
Managing Director, Pragmatist Foundation, Pronatalist.org, and Collins Institute; CEO, Travelmax.

I go to Manifest to cut down the time I have to spend socializing with other people by concentrating that interaction into a small time investment large pay off gathering. My big projects are trying to replace the school system with https://collinsinstitute.org/, trying to build an alternative to the current healthcare system, and running the pronatalist movement. Oh and my podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@SimoneandMalcolm

Connections within the right leaning EA/rat branch. (My wife is running for office right now as a Republican.)

Business
Policy
Biotech
Writing
malcolmcollins.
simonehcollins
https://www.youtube.com/@SimoneandMalcolm
Slytherin
Anthony Gao
Unserious

Here to see what it's all about

I'll do whatever if it's convenient

Progress Studies
Forecasting
AI
Policy
Business
Finance
Biotech
Mechanism design
Rationality
New Science
Writing
tonz
@TonyGao
https://readsfast.substack.com/
tonyzgao@gmail.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthony-gao-b70536a6/
Not looking for full-time offers, but potentially interested in collaborations, contracting, or consulting
Ravenclaw
Javier Prieto
Forecasting Guy @ Open Phil

I'd love to get more clarity on some of these questions, e.g.

I have deep insight into the many practical difficulties you may run into if you try to implement some kind of internal forecasting at a mid-sized org. I wrote about some of those here.

Forecasting
AI
Grantmaking
Biotech
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Rationality
New Science
Progress Studies
javipo
JavierPrieto
https://calendly.com/javierprieto/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/javier-prieto-29561421b/
Open to offers, but not actively looking
Ravenclaw
Andreas Finke
Founder at Contro

Network with forecasting enthusiasts, founders, and developers; engage with potential investors. Get up-to-date and learn new things. Raise awareness of Contro & explore collaborations.

Share initial lessons learned as a new founder, brainstorm new mechanisms and maths, blockchains.

Forecasting
Business
Finance
Mechanism design
0xptr
@afinkek
cal.com/finke
af@staedy.co
Josh Sacks
Software/ML Engineer

Interested in the talks, plus meeting people in the rationalist/prediction space

25+ years experience in Software Engineer and ML. Startup founder- happy to give career advice or debug an app!

Forecasting
AI
Angel investing
Rationality
Progress Studies
quirkyllama
@JoshSacks
@quirkyllama
+14156080475 (SMS/Signal)
https://www.linkedin.com/in/josh-sacks-jjs/
Open to offers, but not actively looking
Software Engineering (Full Stack), Machine Learning
Dave Kasten
Consultant, mainly doing AI policy things
1.
Joy and nerdiness
1.
Advice on DC stuff -- anything from substantive policy issues (especially re: AI) to navigating the jobs process here to where to live
Business
AI
Forecasting
Policy
Writing
Progress Studies
Rationality
davethek
DaveK
@David_Kasten
davekasten.substack.com
During conference, use Discord; outside of conference, use Twitter or my LinkedIn. (I need to figure out a spammable email address...)
https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-kasten-23932086/
Open to offers, but not actively looking
Washington, D.C., (but willing to move)
Slytherin
Ben Goldhaber
Director @ FAR AI

I want to meet people conducting radical experiments with new tech and cultural practices for thinking, decision making, and fun.

Advice and connections to AI and Tools for Thought researchers and practitioners.

Forecasting
Mechanism design
AI
Business
Angel investing
New Science
Rationality
goldie
BenGoldhaber
BenGoldhaber
bengoldhaber.com
Gryffindor
Niko McCarty
Founder, Asimov Press

I'd like to talk more about how we can predict the future, especially in biotechnology and biorisk.

I have a 7-year background in synthetic biology and gene-editing, and am glad to talk about that. I also used to be a data journalist and like to talk about charts.

Writing
Biotech
Progress Studies
N/A
NikoMcCarty
nikomccarty.com
niko@asimov.com
Ravenclaw
Abigail Donahue
Economics Undergrad

I want to learn from people with exciting ideas.

I want to have good conversations and expand my worldview.

Policy
Journalism
Writing
Rationality
N/A
Gryffindor
Chris Farina
#CoolFold

meet cool people

lets work on a cool project together

Forecasting
AI
Business
Finance
Journalism
Policy
Angel investing
Grantmaking
Biotech
Writing
Mechanism design
New Science
Progress Studies
Effective Altruism
Rationality
strutheo
strutheo
vestboy_myst
Stephanie May
Cartographer / Internet User

I want to write interesting questions and bet fake money on things, as an excursive exercise for understanding events outside my own mind or control. As long as no one gets hurt I don't care who wins.

Dishing up hot takes for free!

Forecasting
Business
Policy
Journalism
Writing
Mechanism design
@mizmay
@BlueDragon
@mizmay [@mapstedon.space] <- since twitter is gone ya'll
https://calendly.com/alumna-interview/30-min-remote
Gryffindor
Tyler Tracy
Software Engineer / Independent AI researcher

Looking to kick my summer off with a bang.

I know / can help you with

AI
Biotech
Effective Altruism
Rationality
Forecasting
tyler_the_coder
TylerTracy
https://x.com/tylertracy321
tylertracy.com
Ravenclaw
Pat Scott
Wanderer

goofing

I make a mean soup. also pretty damn good at balancing at the ecosystem of a society, economy, or product.

Policy
Business
Mechanism design
stralor
Stralor
_stralor
Christian Holland
Working on a new startup. Occasional professional gambler (bet on US politics from the UK). Retired doctor.
  • Meet interesting, high-agency people working on important problems.
  • I have a strange collection of knowledge about medicine, defence, tech and VC in the UK. If anyone wants to learn more about these areas I'd love to help.
Angel investing
Mechanism design
Progress Studies
New Science
Business
Finance
Forecasting
loadsreallylives
@ChristianHoll12
www.christianholland.me
https://calendly.com/christianholland/30-minute-call
christianmaholland@gmail.com
Slytherin
Andrew McKnight
Generalist Rando

Inspiration to write great questions. Forecasting theory ideas.

Happy to brainstorm with people about anything

Forecasting
AI
Biotech
Writing
Mechanism design
Rationality
New Science
mangort_
AndrewMcKnight
amcdonk
https://github.com/amcknight
thedonk@gmail.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ajmcknight/
Open to offers, but not actively looking
data-focused software engineering, research
Ravenclaw
Anthony Edvalson
Software / ML

Get to know new people, learn new things, and lose horribly in the poker tournament.

Top skills:

Forecasting
Business
AI
Finance
New Science
Mechanism design
Rationality
_tonypepperoni_
TonyPepperoni
you can email me at tonyedvalson@gmail.com
Slytherin
Ravi Parikh
Former founder at Heap.io

Meet interesting people

Experienced tech founder (grew company to 200+ people & successful acquisition) so I can help anyone with questions related to that.

Forecasting
AI
Angel investing
Progress Studies
New Science
Biotech
Policy
ravenewworld
ravisparikh
raviparikh2@gmail.com
Slytherin
Malcolm Jackson
Writer, Musician, Independent Researcher in training

I'd like to:

I could be a good listener/conversation partner for a wide range of topics. I'm always down to offer feedback and thoughts on writing or creative work. In recent job positions, I've been told that I'm a utility player and great at team work. I can help with general planning/strategy and coming up with ideas.

Forecasting
AI
Biotech
Writing
Effective Altruism
New Science
Progress Studies
Rationality
Business
bas3theshinobi
base
@_malcolmmalik
https://malcolmmalik.substack.com/
https://www.instagram.com/malcolmmaliik/
Gryffindor
Jackson Wagner
Scriptwriter at RationalAnimations

Just hanging out and coworking during the summer camp -- looking to meet interesting new people, maybe in particular talk about writing, EA outreach strategies (what messages should we be sending to what audiences, what are the biggest bottlenecks to address in growing important causes? etc). Also psyched to just hear the latest about forecasting, clever mechanism-design stuff, AI policy, and so on.

I know a lot about: aerospace / satellites, charter cities, georgism / yimbyism, assorted niche EA topics like stable totalitarianism. I'm trying to get better at my scriptwriting craft and would be interested to talk together about writing of any kind!

Journalism
Writing
Effective Altruism
Mechanism design
jackson_wxyz
@JacksonWagner
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/jackson-wagner
jacksonw.xyz@gmail.com
Slytherin
ellen ma
math/econ new grad (uchicago); incoming MS data science at Harvard

Networking for career insight/guidance

Can offer good vibes

Forecasting
AI
Finance
Biotech
Effective Altruism
Rationality
New Science
Progress Studies
mellen
ellenma@g.harvard.edu OR @ellxnma instagram OR ellenma@uchicago.edu
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ellen-ma-a61aa9244/
Actively seeking employment
Located in New York, NY and willing to relocate to Hong Kong.
Ravenclaw
Jacob Seliger
Writer and full-time patient

I'm hoping my wife, Bess, meets other Internet nerds and fully groks the power and importance of writing online.

Editing.

Forecasting
AI
Business
Policy
Journalism
Finance
Biotech
Writing
Rationality
New Science
Progress Studies
jseliger_86822
jakeseliger
@seligerj
https://jakeseliger.com
425 223 8484
Slytherin
River Bellamy
Software Engineer

Interesting ideas, interesting people, good fun

I can provide perspectives on different careers, being in my 3rd (software engineering, after law and teaching).

Finance
Biotech
Forecasting
AI
Policy
Progress Studies
Mechanism design
river.of.rationality
@RiverBellamy
@RiverOfRational
river.f.bellamy@gmail.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/riverbellamy/
Actively seeking employment
Washington, DC area
Ravenclaw
Yoav Tzfati
AI Safety researcher

Mostly make friends and have fun. Potentially hire me as a research engineer for AI safety.

Fun, interesting takes on investing, heart to heart conversations etc.

Forecasting
AI
Finance
Effective Altruism
Rationality
crazytieguy
crazytieguy
yoavtzfati
signal: crazytieguy.42
Hufflepuff
Josh Wight
Software Engineer

Mostly here to have fun and meet people from the Manifold community in person for the first time.

.

AI
Forecasting
Rationality
Progress Studies
Mechanism design
multicore_processor
Multicore
multicore-processor.tumblr.com
joshjwight@gmail.com
Open to offers, but not actively looking
DC Area. Somewhat willing to relocate.
Julius Simonelli
Director of Machine Learning

I would like to figure out the potential of forecasting to improve society. Failing at that, I'd like to at least meet other people interested in prediction markets. Because I work in AI, I'm also interested in how AI and forecasting can be combined. And I'm always excited to meet new people in the rat/EA space.

I run the rationalist group for San Diego, so I'm always happy to talk about community building in the rat/EA space.

Forecasting
AI
Business
Policy
Journalism
Grantmaking
Writing
Effective Altruism
Rationality
New Science
Progress Studies
julius.s.
@JuliusSimonelli
https://thegreymatter.substack.com/
julius.simonelli@gmail.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/julius-simonelli-55a816143/
Open to offers, but not actively looking
San Diego, CA
Maxwell Tabarrok
Econ blogger and researcher

Talk to and meet interesting people. Learn about and test ideas in progress, AI, fertility.

Good question asker. Informed AI risk skeptic.

Progress Studies
Writing
Policy
AI
maxwellt
@MTabarrok
mtabarrok.com
maxwell.tabarrok@gmail.com
Gryffindor
Dylan O'Connell
data scientist

Socialize with others who enjoy the app.

Forecasting
ziddletwix
Ziddletwix
Hufflepuff
Ben Mann
Co-founder at Anthropic

Getting more insight into how to forecast AI progress.

Share Anthropic's take on AI progress

Forecasting
AI
Effective Altruism
benjmann
8enmann
https://benjmann.net/
Ravenclaw
Lennart Heim
AI Governance Researcher

Mostly catching up with folks on all things around forecasting, AI, and whatever excites you.

Done a bit of forecasting over the last few years. Mostly somewhat "applied" to my work on AI Governance. Also worked a lot on empirical trends in AI. I like to draw lines on log charts.

Forecasting
AI
ohlennart
https://twitter.com/ohlennart
Signal:+4915784400369
Gryffindor
Jack Zellweger
Software & Platform Engineer

get to know the San Francisco and Bay Area tech scene, make connections in the west coast tech industry!

Software engineering mentorship

Biotech
Finance
Journalism
Business
Writing
New Science
Mechanism design
Forecasting
AI
jackskis
jackzellweger@hey.com
linkedin.com/in/jackzellweger
Open to offers, but not actively looking
Located in NYC, open to a conversation about relocation!
Ravenclaw
Zac Hatfield-Dodds
Technical Staff @ Anthropic

I'm looking forward to fun conversations, meeting both old and new friends, and maybe learning something :-)

Talk to me about... almost anything, including AI?

Forecasting
AI
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Rationality
New Science
Progress Studies
Biotech
Policy
Zac-HD
https://zhd.dev/
Email me! zac at zhd.dev
Ravenclaw
Skyler Crossman
Ex-software engineer, ACX Meetup Coordinator

Three things:

I run a lot of meetups for this kind of nerd intellectual, and coordinate even more. If you've seen my name, it was most likely in connection with the Astral Codex Ten Meetups Everywhere announcements.

Forecasting
Rationality
Progress Studies
Business
Writing
screwtapes
@skylercrossman
wormwoodsuncle
https://calendar.app.google/FLF9915DkVBsiK3c9
Slytherin
Ermis Mitsou
researcher & smart contract developer @ Contro

To get exposure to new ideas and learn more about the state of the art in prediction markets.

I'd be glad to share my enthusiasm and any knowledge I have about prediction markets, market microstructure and smart contracts.

Forecasting
Finance
Mechanism design
Progress Studies
Effective Altruism
ermitsou
ermitsou
ermitsou
Spencer Pearson
Software Engineer

I'm here for the mechanism design, exotic perspectives, unhinged market ideas, and weird nerds who like that kind of thing.

  • I'm a rather talented SWE, open to part-time or contract work.
Rationality
Mechanism design
Finance
Forecasting
optimizationprocess
OptimizationProcess
https://optimizationprocess.com
Ravenclaw
Iain Schmitt
Software Engineer/Recovering Chemical Engineer

Interested in hearing talks about progress studies, rationality, and meeting a ton of people from the ASC extended universe

I could offer some technical warewithall as a software engineer and, more importantly, a good conversation partner

Forecasting
Policy
Rationality
Progress Studies
eoncarlyle
eoncarlyle
eoncarlyle
new.sand3632@fastmail.com
Slytherin
Ameet Gaitonde
Recovering Accountant

Primarily, I'd like to build the early version of a mass communication platform for exploring, discussing, and "improving" our civic systems. Beyond that, I'd like to run some fun events, flex my personality around people I feel comfortable with, listen in on some great conversations, and maybe meet someone who provides the spark in my life I've been missing. Getting a job would be great too.

As a generalist, I can be the glue that connects different types of people together, or helps them see how they can connect without me. I can help you with your pitch to investors or customers, or just how you can market your product differently. It just depends though, sometimes I don't have much to offer.

Business
Policy
Journalism
Finance
Writing
Grantmaking
Angel investing
Mechanism design
Progress Studies
New Science
houstonEuler
houstonEuler
www.houstoneuler.com
ameet.me
houstoneuler1@gmail.com
Ravenclaw
Michael Liu
Aspiring AI Researcher Stuck in Industry
  • I want to discover all the fellow nerds in the Rationality / EA / AI space
  • I could show you how to brew a damn good cup of coffee, but I'll also save you weeks of pain by telling you to stay away from espresso.
AI
Biotech
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Rationality
New Science
quasimik
qmk
mic.hael.me
gleeful.strongbox851@addy.io
https://www.linkedin.com/in/quasimik/
Actively seeking employment
SFBA / New York / US Remote / Singapore / World Remote
Ravenclaw
Allison Duettmann
CEO of Foresight Institute
  • connecting with others especially interested in advancing high-impact technology for the benefit of life, with a focus on longevity bio, molecular nano, neuro, secure AI
  • bouncing back ideas/projects in longevity bio, molecular nano, neuro, secure AI
Forecasting
AI
Grantmaking
Biotech
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Rationality
New Science
Progress Studies
allisondman
@AllisonDuettmann
https://x.com/allisondman
https://www.existentialhope.com
https://calendly.com/allisonduettmann/15min
https://www.linkedin.com/in/allison-duettmann-b5021a106/
Not looking for full-time offers, but potentially interested in collaborations, contracting, or consulting
San Francisco
Dan Elton
Blogger and researcher

Networking, figuring out next steps in life.

Happy to chat about intersection of AI and healthcare, personalized & preventative medicine, and longevity. Also interested in whole brain emulation, BCI, longevity, metascience, and progress studies.

Progress Studies
New Science
Rationality
Effective Altruism
Writing
Biotech
AI
delton137
delton
moreisdifferent
https://www.moreisdifferent.com/
delton17 at letter after f mail
https://www.linkedin.com/in/danielelton/
Actively seeking employment
Boston, but willing to relocate
Ravenclaw
Corinne Corinfinite
Cyborg, Software Engineer

I'm looking forward to enjoying the variety of talks (so many I am excited to check out!) and meeting folks.

I'm happy to be a springboard for ideas, in particular about AI and software engineering. I hope to be a friendly face and conversationalist!

AI
Finance
Writing
Mechanism design
Rationality
Effective Altruism
Progress Studies
New Science
corinfinite
manic_pixie_agi
Ravenclaw
Oleg Eterevsky
Software Engineer at Google/Bard

Talk to smart people about the future, predicting it and acting on these predictions. Hear new ideas that I haven't heard or thought of yet. Socialize with people with the worldview close to mine.

I'm relatively good at problem-solving, at seeing both sides of the debate.

Forecasting
AI
Angel investing
Writing
Rationality
New Science
aengus239
eterevsky
eterevsky
https://www.linkedin.com/in/eterevsky/
Open to offers, but not actively looking
Switzerland, not considering relocating to another country.
Ravenclaw
Forrest Wolf
Software Engineer

TODO

TODO

Forecasting
AI
Writing
Effective Altruism
Rationality
forrestwolf
Forrest
https://forrestweiswolf.github.io/
Ronan McGovern
Founder at Trelis.com, Eire-Ventures.com

Chat with others about applications for AI / LLMs. I'm particularly interested to learn more about applications in biology/biotech.

I run a micro grants program for entrepreneurs at Eire-Ventures.com.

AI
Business
Angel investing
Biotech
Writing
Grantmaking
Forecasting
ronanmcgovern
ronan
ronankmcgovern
ronanmcgovern.com
Not looking for full-time offers, but potentially interested in collaborations, contracting, or consulting
Dublin
Santeri Tani
Ex-SWE, ex-co-director of EA Finland, looking for jobs

Vibes, come talk to me about that one weird thing you're really into.

I can hang out, jam, found an org with you, go on a road trip, manipulate Manifold markets

Forecasting
AI
Effective Altruism
Rationality
N/A
sanyero
calendly.com/satani
@Jepuliz on Telegram, jepuliz.52 on Signal
John Bennett
Budget Analyst at US Department of Defense

I'm looking to understand prediction markets better. We use various forecasting methods in government, but prediction markets haven't stuck, at least in budget circles. This seems like a missed opportunity. I come to Manifold from the rationality community and am excited to attend those workshops.

In my professional life I am a Budget Analyst in DoD focusing on fuel, long-lead single-source weapon system spare parts, and statistical controls (in case you speak acronym, that’s GS-0501 for WCF Cash in DLA J83 detailed to OUSD(C) EFT RF). I believe budget is applied policy in the same sense that engineering is applied science. I know well and am excited to talk about the federal budget generally, how we raise and spend money, and how to use that to accomplish policy goals. I have opinions ab

Policy
Business
Writing
Rationality
Progress Studies
Forecasting
johnofcharleston
johnofcharleston
JohnofCharleston@gmail.com
Hufflepuff
Mackenzie Mikkelsen
Chief Innovation Officer at Arbol

I'm looking for potential co-founders or an early stage project to join. Let me know if you need an experienced technical co-lead!

I am very skilled at bringing good ideas to fruition! Tell me any sorts of good ideas you think should become reality.

Forecasting
AI
Finance
Effective Altruism
macmikk
Mackenzie Mikkelsen
mackenziemikkelsen@gmail.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/mackenziemikkelsen/
Actively seeking employment
Seattle, Willing to relocate
Slytherin
Mackenzie Mikkelsen
Chief Innovation Officer at Arbol

I'm looking for potential co-founders or an early stage project to join. Let me know if you need an experienced technical co-lead!

I am very skilled at bringing good ideas to fruition! Tell me any sorts of good ideas you think should become reality.

Forecasting
AI
Effective Altruism
Finance
macmikk
mackenziemikkelsen@gmail.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/mackenziemikkelsen
Open to offers, but not actively looking
Seattle, Willing to relocate
Slytherin
Keerthana Kesavan
Senior Scientist, Protein Engineering at Illumina

I'm looking forward to expanding my knowledge about a variety of topics involving forecasting, AI, X-risk, and other rat/EA topics. I'm also hoping to meet interesting people, build a better network, and have fun conversations.

I work in biotech so I could chat about the industry or about genomics, DNA sequencing, protein engineering, and biochemistry.

Biotech
Rationality
Effective Altruism
New Science
AI
Forecasting
Writing
N/A
kkesavan.phi@gmail.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/keerthana-ak/
Open to offers, but not actively looking
Ravenclaw
Holly Morgan
80,000 Hours App Reviewer until AI takes my job next month

"Meeting Goals"...HAPPINESS!!! Ha-ppi-ness...

I'm afraid my romantic matchmaking and personal assistant matchmaking days are behind me. But bring me Gabe Bankman-Fried, Gage Weston, a piano, a microphone, and sheet music for What A Wonderful World and y'all are in for a treat.

Effective Altruism
AI
Policy
Journalism
cosmicarena
three_passions
https://www.facebook.com/hollyrebeccamorgan
https://www.linkedin.com/in/holly-morgan/
Not at all interested in offers
Oxford
Hufflepuff
Peter McCluskey
stock market speculator

Meet interesting people. Both old friends and a few new people. Preferably in one of the quieter outdoor areas.

My long-term experience with financial markets might enable me to provide some small insights into how to design better markets?

Forecasting
AI
Angel investing
Effective Altruism
Rationality
Finance
Writing
Mechanism design
PeterMcCluskey
PeterMcCluskey
https://bayesianinvestor.com
Peter.C.McCluskey@gmail.com
Not looking for full-time offers, but potentially interested in collaborations, contracting, or consulting
Berkeley, unlikely to relocate
Ravenclaw
Zane Stiles
Stanford MBA Student, Political Prediction Market Enthusiast

I am a Stanford student studying the political economy of political prediction markets. What are the paths to approval? What can this community do to gain legal status? I have spoken to many current and former regulators, elected representatives, journalists, academics, etc. about this.

Between my Stanford GSB classmates and my industry contacts (in traditional, not quant, finance) I have a useful network that I can use to connect people.

Policy
Business
Finance
Zane Stiles (_zzany)
zstiles@stanford.edu
Judd Rosenblatt
CEO/Founder of AE Studio

Forecasting AI, AI alignment, hiring incredible technical people, smart and weird conversations. Would love to chat with anyone about these or be connected with the person you believe is the best thinker in these spaces!

I founded and run a scaling (150+ FTEs) data sci and dev consulting studio, I have grown out internal teams working on neurotechnology and AI alignment. Would love to offer our technical expertise to valuable projects and also figure out neglected approaches to AI alignment that could actually solve the problem. Can offer entrepreneurship and business advice generally.

AI
Business
Policy
Forecasting
Angel investing
Grantmaking
Effective Altruism
Rationality
N/A
https://twitter.com/juddrosenblatt
https://ae.studio/
judd@ae.studio
Judd Rosenblatt
CEO/Founder of AE Studio

Forecasting AI, AI alignment, hiring incredible technical people, smart and weird conversations. Would love to chat with anyone about these or be connected with the person you believe is the best thinker in these spaces!

I founded and run a scaling (150+ FTEs) data sci and dev consulting studio, I have grown out internal teams working on neurotechnology and AI alignment. Would love to offer our technical expertise to valuable projects and also figure out neglected approaches to AI alignment that could actually solve the problem. Can offer entrepreneurship and business advice generally.

AI
Business
Forecasting
Angel investing
Grantmaking
Effective Altruism
Rationality
N/A
N.C. Young
PhD Student in AI at the University of Auckland

New friends, profits, market ideas, ideas about how to make futarchy happen on any scale, great conversations, great episodes of "Manifold: Live!", fun!

I have experience running a Manifold bot, adding small features to the site, and running livestreams on/about Manifold. I'll give anything a go, so if there's something you want to make happen and you need someone else and you don't know who to ask, try asking me!

Forecasting
AI
Writing
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Rationality
New Science
Progress Studies
NcyRocks
NcyRocks
nathanyoung.nz
https://calendly.com/ncyoung/30min
nathan@nathanyoung.nz
https://www.linkedin.com/in/nathanyoungnz/
Open to offers, but not actively looking
Based in Auckland, New Zealand. NZ/UK dual citizen. Willing to move but would prefer remote
Gryffindor
Rachel Freedman
AI PhD

Meet and hang out with fun, interesting people.

Interesting conversations.

AI
Biotech
Writing
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Rationality
amrylllis
RachelFreedman
@FreedmanRach
https://rachelfreedman.github.io/
rachel.freedman@berkeley.edu
Gryffindor
Patrick Ward
Startup Executive & Advisor

I'm interested in developing tools to improve individual and collective epistemology. I'm exploring ideas like trust/believability scores for writers, public intellectuals, and influencers. I'd love to connect with others in the space.

I'm happy to be a thought partner to anyone on topics related to startup go-to-market or fraud & risk in fintech/financial services.

Forecasting
AI
Business
Journalism
Angel investing
Writing
Mechanism design
Rationality
Progress Studies
pdw_live
pdw
patrickdward
patrick.d.ward@gmail.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/patrickdward/
Actively seeking employment
Austin, TX
Gryffindor
Matthew Adelstein
Blogger

I want to meet cool people! Cool people can come chat with me!

Happy to chat with people about philosophy.

Effective Altruism
omnizoid
Ravenclaw
Alexander Miller
19yo aspiring AI safety researcher

Meet people in the Bay Area, have interesting conversations, hear new ideas, earn some mana, maybe help figure out my plan for the next 6 months. Would also like to learn what forecasting is (half-serious).

Meet potential future coworkers.

Forecasting
AI
Effective Altruism
Rationality
Tyatsmr
AlexanderMiller
alexfeltonmiller@gmail.com
Ravenclaw
Gage Weston
Research Fellow at AI Policy Institute

I want to meet others working on or interested in AI safety, or who have related thoughts on forecasting AI

I can talk with you about the state of US federal AI policy, connect you with others in the space, talk to you about roles my org is hiring for

AI
Forecasting
Grantmaking
Effective Altruism
Policy
gagew
https://calendly.com/gagew/manifest
gage@weston.co 8308225777
Ravenclaw
Fred Zhang
CS PhD student at UC Berkeley

Meeting people and learning more about AI and forecasting.

Experience in building AI forecasting system via LM. Research conversations in algorithms, ML theory, and LM mech interp.

Forecasting
Rationality
AI
fredzhang_
https://twitter.com/FredZhang0
https://fredzhang.me/
z0@berkeley.edu
James Ausman
Internet OG

Teach me about how to predict the future

History of AI/ML, history of the Internet

AI
Forecasting
Finance
N/A
Jim A.
Jim Ausman
415-572-4792
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ausman/
Actively seeking employment
San Francisco. Not willing to relocate but willing to commute and even fly a couple of times a month.
Slytherin
Theresa Barton
Research Scientist at Databricks

I am looking to get into arguments about politics, international relations, and morality.

I know a lot of fun facts. I work in B2B enterprise SaaS and could advise about how to get jobs in that. I’m not a great forecaster but I am good at coming up with fun markets.

New Science
Rationality
Effective Altruism
Mechanism design
Biotech
Forecasting
AI
ttttt6643
tftftftftftftftftftftftf
tessybarton
Gryffindor
Xander Balwit
Editor-in-chief and writer at Asimov Press

Looking to connect with people who are interested in making the future go well and see writing as a way to do that. I am eager to talk with writers, forecasters, and others who are passionate about the history of ideas and transformative technologies. You can help me by pitching ideas for writing, writers, or special projects for Asimov Press. What do you hope to see from a magazine that covers scientific progress? What pieces do you want to read?

I can offer advice on editing and writing, and commiserate about both.

Journalism
Forecasting
Writing
Biotech
Effective Altruism
Rationality
Progress Studies
AI
n/a
Xander Balwit
@AlexandraBalwit
xander@asimov.com
Shreeda Segan
Writer & editor

Recently left my job as deputy editor of meridian.mercury.com. Looking for my next opportunity! Also your thoughts on dating apps. I've been working with a team to build a long form profiles & compatibility scores site and product. We need funders and builders. Designers especially.

Writing and editing services. I'm also a great listener and have been told I ask good questions.

Writing
Journalism
Progress Studies
Business
AI
Finance
sadmoonanalog
@freeshreeda
Shreedasegan.com
Actively seeking employment
Austin, TX. Would love to stay there or be remote. Would consider eventual relocation for the right job, though.
Slytherin
Brandon Beckhardt
Doing things at Kalshi

Meet incredible people, see how we can improve Kalshi, have a great time!

Share more about Kalshi, hopefully make the product better for the future, share my experience as to what building a company in the PM space is like.

Forecasting
AI
Business
Finance
Biotech
Rationality
New Science
brandon_kal
brandonbeckhardt
kalshi.com
https://x.com/bebeckhardt
Daniel Reeves
Co-founder of Beeminder

Game to talk about game theory, mechanism design, Mathematica as a programming language, AI of course, real money vs play money prediction markets, ...

I know things about startups and running a small business. And I've been in the rationality community for, like, decades.

Forecasting
AI
Business
Angel investing
Writing
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Rationality
New Science
Progress Studies
dreev
dreev
dreev
http://dreev.es
http://cal.com/dreev
dreeves@beeminder.com
Ravenclaw
Stephen Grugett
Manifold Cofounder

manifesting manifold

talk to me about forecasting, finance, & filosophy

Forecasting
AI
Business
Finance
Angel investing
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Rationality
New Science
Progress Studies
stevo_manifold
SG
ManifoldMarkets
Ravenclaw
Pawel Sysiak
writing, ui/ux design

Talk to people who are interested in:

I work as a senior UI/UX designer, and I am interested in consulting on projects related to epistemic tooling, improving collective coordination, or governance mechanisms.

Forecasting
Writing
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Rationality
Journalism
AI
pawsys
paw
http://pawel.world
https://calendar.app.google/ygu9ecfY94atYa4s5
Brennan Robbins
Data Scientist

Learn more from ppl betting in markets

Perhaps how to approach systematic investing?

Forecasting
Finance
frightenedparrot
macromodels.substack.com
Ravenclaw
Aaron Lehmann
Software engineer at Netflix

Long-time Manifold user, interested in forecasting and meeting other site users and communit members.

Happy to share my experiences and opinions...

Forecasting
AI
Policy
Finance
Grantmaking
Effective Altruism
Rationality
aaronlehmann
AaronLehmann
Liam Robins
Consumer of Knowledge; Undergrad in Data Science and Political Science

Mostly, I'm just here to learn and have fun! I love prediction markets, I love statistics, and I love the Rationalist community. I'm incredibly hyped to meet the other nerds of the world and talk to them about everything from forecasting to fertility. If I can leave Berkeley with a just few great ideas and friendships, then I will consider it a success.

If you want an eager young mind who can research and write about a wide variety of topics, I'm your guy!

Forecasting
AI
Policy
Effective Altruism
Rationality
liamhrobins
@LiamRobins
https://blinq.me/lUHtAZcNiSTv?bs=db
https://www.linkedin.com/in/liam-robins-338a50294/
Not looking for full-time offers, but potentially interested in collaborations, contracting, or consulting
I'm currently in northern New Jersey for the summer, but I live in Washington, D.C. for most of the year.
Quratul Aain Zainab
?
  • I don't really have hobbies or side quests I feel very excited by at the moment. I'm curious to learn more about interests, side projects and activities people do outside of their day jobs in case one of those things sparks deep interest in me. Also interested in having one-on-one interactions where we do a thing together or really try to figure out something rather than just talk
  • If you're in London in the future and want to make more in-person friends, I'd be happy to invite you to parties, lightning talks, poker evenings etc I host if I think you might enjoy them
AI
Policy
Grantmaking
Mechanism design
Rationality
New Science
Forecasting
qza007
@qz
Ravenclaw
Madhu Sriram
Co-founder of Fractal University and Grova

Meet interesting people!

If you’re looking into AIS or live in NYC, SF, or Cambridge, I’m happy to make introductions. I also love helping to flesh out people’s ideas—talk to me!

Progress Studies
New Science
Rationality
Writing
Grantmaking
Forecasting
AI
madhuu_s
https://x.com/madhu___s
cal.com/madhuu
madhu2423@gmail.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/madhu-sriram/
Open to offers, but not actively looking
NYC
Gryffindor
Simeon Anfinrud
Software scavenger at Google

Find out if this stuff is as interesting in real life as it is in the blogs

Captive audience for your interesting stories

Forecasting
Writing
Mechanism design
Rationality
New Science
Progress Studies
Policy
Effective Altruism
AI
c3potheds
C3POtheDragonSlayer
njordsier
Ravenclaw
Nate Foss
co-founder of gather.town

just looking to meet (and learn from) interesting people

hard-earned scars experience building a product and company

Policy
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Rationality
Progress Studies
Business
npfoss
https://npfoss.com
Slytherin
Eric Neyman
Researcher at the Alignment Research Center

I want to have interesting conversations with cool people!

If you're interested in questions like "how should I aggregate forecasts" or "what proper scoring rule should I use", I'm a good person to ask!

Forecasting
AI
Policy
Writing
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Rationality
unexpected_values
EricNeyman
ericneyman
https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/
eric.neyman@columbia.edu
Ravenclaw
Guenael Strutt
Engineering Manager at Google

I want to make the most out of prediction markets for making career and business decisions.

I've taken an ML startup through an IPO as a VP of Technology.

Rationality
Effective Altruism
AI
.guenael.
guenael
www.guenael.com
linkedin.com/in/guenael/
Not looking for full-time offers, but potentially interested in collaborations, contracting, or consulting
San Francisco bay area – currently in the process of relocating to Germany
Kristóf Szabó
Mathematics MSc Student

Just tell me anything interesting about Deep Learning, forecasting or quantitative trading.

I can explain the mathematics of random stuff. Besides being a Mathematician I am also an experienced software developer.

Forecasting
AI
Finance
ayers13
Ayers
Gryffindor
Zander Pear
Game Designer

I want to hear unfamiliar ideas about what the next few decades will be like. Also do some fun betting.

Good listener, decent organizer.

Forecasting
Rationality
Progress Studies
Business
Policy
Finance
Writing
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Zander
alexpear.github.io
Ravenclaw
Byrne Hobart
Writer, Investor

I'm interested in new ideas, and especially interested in old ideas that are newly-relevant.

Stress-testing ideas.

Forecasting
AI
Policy
Business
Journalism
Finance
Angel investing
Writing
Mechanism design
Rationality
Progress Studies
byrne5588
@byrnehobart
@byrnehobart
https://www.thediff.co/
Not looking for full-time offers, but potentially interested in collaborations, contracting, or consulting
Austin, TX
Ravenclaw
Michael Elias
Founder of Ideamarket

I'm obsessed with "return on attention" and creative approaches to epistemology. My work uniquely focuses on the emotional aspects of rationality, and building infrastructure to help people DESIRE truth. Just here to brainstorm ideas and see if a fun experimental project emerges.

I've been building epistemic infrastructure for 5 years, so I'd be happy to help others overcome obstacles in their work and thinking.

Mechanism design
Forecasting
harmonylion
MikeElias
harmonylion1
https://harmonylion.com
Gryffindor
Dave Guarino
Systems spelunker and AI deployer into adversarial safety net interactions

Maximize serendipity and connections to domains outside my own where the shapes are unexpectedly similar. Hear from people excited about their ideas. Spelunk systems together.

Areas I have some practical knowledge in where I'd hope I could be helpful: identifying points of leverage in/on institutions, particularly public sector ones; adversarial integration with legacy systems in many meanings of the phrase; analytic models of unintended service rationing.

AI
Business
Policy
Finance
Writing
Mechanism design
Rationality
Effective Altruism
Forecasting
daveg (dba alalfarce)
DaveGuarino
allafarce
https://www.daveguarino.com
DM @allafarce on Twitter
Andressa Kanashiro
Product Designer @ Futuur

Im hoping to learn more about Predictions market and many other stuff :)

A nice discussion about basically anything with a designer point of view

Policy
Business
AI
Forecasting
New Science
Rationality
Progress Studies
Effective Altruism
Biotech
dressa_kanashiro
https://andressakanashiro.com/
andressa@futuur.com
Slytherin
Charlie Mlcek
U.S. House of Representatives—Summer Intern; Econ Undergrad

Note: Please don't share the following information outside of Manifest attendees. I don't mention the information below in most spaces; if word gets out about some of these beliefs/plans, it could ruin my chances. That being said—I trust you, fellow Manifest attendees!

I'm an extremely social extrovert, and I know a good bit about the DC political scene. I also started and considerably grew my EA campus group. If you want to have a fun conversation, reach out!

Policy
AI
Effective Altruism
bigchar3329
CharlieMlcek
https://www.linkedin.com/in/charliemlcek/
Hufflepuff
Isabel Juniewicz
Research Fellow at Open Philanthropy

I'd love to talk about different ways of measuring and forecasting AI model capabilities. What benchmarks do you check about a new model when it comes out? What milestones do you care about in AI capabilities? What questions are the most useful to forecast on for making AI go well?

I can talk about getting into forecasting (I'm a pro forecaster on Metaculus), AI, and some of the pitfalls of forecasting AI.

Forecasting
AI
Rationality
Effective Altruism
tentativelyassembled
IsabelJ
brightertmrrw
isabel.juniewicz@gmail.com
Hufflepuff
Lucas Cabral Maciel
Head of Editorial at Futuur

Ideas on how to make predictions markets better for everyone.

A perspective from a different viewing point, as I might be one of the few people at manifest coming from Brazil and the performing arts world.

Forecasting
Policy
AI
lucasb5br
LucasCabralMaciel
lucas@futuur.com, +55 21 97987 3374 (WhatsApp)
Ravenclaw
John Boyle
Programmer at Pure Storage

I want to raise a bunch of genius children, and to encourage others to do so. Looking for co-conspirators. Also aiming to create niceness along the way.

Ask me about exceptionally gifted children and how they're best raised.

AI
Rationality
Biotech
N/A
johnthescavenger@gmail.com
Ravenclaw
Jay Baxter
Sr. Staff ML Engineer - Community Notes @X

Learn and meet others interested in Community Notes, truth-seeking, prediction markets, etc.

happy to listen to feedback/suggestions or answer Qs about Community Notes

Forecasting
AI
Mechanism design
New Science
___jay____
_jaybaxter_
Tyson Ni
Data Scientist, Soon-to-be Entrepreneur

Meet people who are passionate about prediction markets, get new ideas and inspiration, find potential partners to collaborate on projects.

Brainstorm ideas in general.

Forecasting
AI
Business
Policy
Journalism
Finance
Mechanism design
Progress Studies
artifactcollector
Gretta Duleba
Communications Manager at MIRI

I enjoy 1:1 and small group conversations with kindred spirits and people who will inspire my future work.

I'd be happy to talk to you about: AI x-risk comms strategy, writing fiction, relationships, sex, kink, coping with existential dread, and having a life while parenting.

AI
Journalism
Writing
Rationality
grettazon
GrettaDuleba
grettazon
https://calendly.com/gretta-miri
Slytherin
Owain Evans
AI Safety Research (ex: FHI Oxford)

How can LLMs help with forecasting, science and philosophy.

Background in: AI Safety, LLMs, epistemology, cognitive science.

Forecasting
AI
Rationality
New Science
Writing
owainevans
OwainEvans_UK
https://owainevans.github.io/
owaine@gmai.com
Ravenclaw
Gregory Shuflin
Programmer

Meet some interesting people, learn some interesting things. In particular, improve my understanding of trading, which seems important and which I don't understand as well as I would like to.

Anything involving an understanding of software, particularly functional programming

AI
Rationality
Forecasting
Grantmaking
neunenak
greg.everydayimshuflin.com
Ravenclaw
Haven Harms
Independent Researcher

I want to meet people, have fun, and learn new things (and have some new rabbit hole starting points).

Most recently, I’ve been in the AI policy/advocacy space, but before that, I was in public health/global health, so if people have questions about policy or about public health/global health they want to work through, I’d be happy to try and help.

Forecasting
AI
Policy
Biotech
Writing
Effective Altruism
Rationality
New Science
Progress Studies
haven_w.h.
HWH
haven_emme
Haventropy.substack.com
haven.worsham.harms@gmail.com
Hufflepuff
Cassandra Melax
Software Engineer

Friends with common interests I can discuss things with after the conference, knowledge, open to job/side project/collaborator offers but not intending to leave my current job soon.

Software engineering Qs, advice to students, frandshipp, fun

Forecasting
Business
Policy
Journalism
Effective Altruism
Rationality
New Science
Writing
AI
m314x
DM me on discord (m314x)
cassandra@melax.com
Slytherin
James Bailey
Associate Professor of Economics at Providence College

Meet people, get better as a trader and a researcher

Comparative advantage here is probably the academic side of things- know about publishing, jobs, et c

Forecasting
Policy
Finance
Angel investing
Effective Altruism
Rationality
Progress Studies
New Science
Writing
1ArmedEconomist
JamesBailey
@1ArmedEconomist
www.james-bailey.net
https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-bailey-24267813/
Not looking for full-time offers, but potentially interested in collaborations, contracting, or consulting
Providence
Ravenclaw
Bence Nagy
AI products lead @ Semgrep

Looking for SF local friends! Fan of tech, video games, forecasting, Japan, stuff like that

Got 10+ years of software experience and have been building with LLMs in production for the past year, happy to provide advice

Forecasting
AI
Business
Rationality
Finance
Policy
underyx
bence
underyx
https://bence.dev
https://clockwiseapp.com/c/bence/30
Ravenclaw
Ernest French
The Real Deal

Create markets, have fun, prepare for the future well

Talking about things

Rationality
New Science
Progress Studies
Mechanism design
Forecasting
AI
brouhahaha
Ernie
http://fuseki.net
https://calendly.com/ernestfrench/
ernestfrench@gmail.com
Hufflepuff
Michael Seaman
Gambling Globetrotter,AI Enthusiast, Political Analyst

Meet interesting people associated with prediction markets and AI. Possibly find co-founders for outing.ai - an AI travel agency - or find an interesting team to join.

AI help, world travel advice, and political help for a candidate.

Forecasting
AI
Policy
Rationality
gamblingglobetrotter
@Mseaman
outing.ai
mseaman@outing.ai
Slytherin
Lucas Kohorst
Product Engineer

New to the space, looking to grow my network

Currently building an RSS newsfeed that features embedded prediction market odds from leading platforms

Forecasting
Finance
Angel investing
Writing
lucaskohorst
lucaskohorst
KohorstLucas
kohorst.esq
lucas@adjacentresearch.xyz
Warren Tan
software engineer from Singapore, looking for next adventure

I hope to meet new friends, learn about new ideas, and start/join new ventures!

Share my personal experiences (ask me about working for the Singapore government, using prediction markets to inform policymaking in Singapore, or my previous experience living in China and the UK).

Forecasting
AI
Business
Writing
Mechanism design
Progress Studies
wozza0257
https://twitter.com/zxt_tzx
tanzixiang@gmail.com
http://www.linkedin.com/in/tan-zixiang/
Actively seeking employment
Singapore, willing to relocate to the US for the right job.
Ravenclaw
Mike Lyons
Principal Engineer & AI Safety Enthusiast | ex-Amazon | Founder, Sapient Sands

I want to gain insights into the current challenges in AI extinction risk mitigation and explore opportunities for collaboration where my engineering background can add value.

I can offer my expertise in designing and operating distributed systems at scale, drawing on my 6.5 years as a Principal Engineer at Amazon, and share insights on the uses and limitations of large language models.

Forecasting
AI
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Rationality
Mike Lyons
ML
AlignedLoss
mike@sapient-sands.com
Ravenclaw
Josh Morrison
President of 1Day Sooner

Would love to learn more about forecasting and particularly how people use AI tools to forecast.

I've started some advocacy nonprofits so I can give advice on that. I work in science policy and have lots of ideas about infectious disease, vaccines, and human subject research

Forecasting
AI
Policy
Grantmaking
Biotech
Effective Altruism
Progress Studies
joshcmorrison
joshcmorrison
Ravenclaw
Peter Hammon
Attorney/Advisor to Prediction Markets & Sportsbooks

Win the poker tournament!

Guidance to any early-stage/growth companies interested in launching or offering services to prediction markets, sportsbooks, etither onshore or overseas.

Business
Policy
Finance
N/A
https://velawood.com/attorney/peter-hammon/
phammongaming@gmail.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-hammon-09703158/
Not looking for full-time offers, but potentially interested in collaborations, contracting, or consulting
Los Angeles
Ravenclaw
Seenia Hong
Recovering AI Product Person - exploring

Meet folks. Challenge brain. Make friends. Enjoy vibes.

Generally looking forward to hearing folks' stories and paths.

AI
Business
Angel investing
Rationality
New Science
seenia_
Elliott Lehrer
Senior Strategist at Capital One

I want to use complex ideas to make the world better at scale - I’m looking for new ideas and connections to be a part of that journey with me

I love to help people who are 1. trying to make big decisions with their business, 2. trying to understand the fundamental dynamics behind how large scale systems work, or 3. trying to design a more fulfilling life for themselves

AI
Business
Policy
Finance
Rationality
Progress Studies
New Science
Elliott_lehrer
Feel free to text me at 7606134155
Slytherin
Guive Assadi
Research assistant to Nick Bostrom

I want to talk with others about AI, forecasting, history, etc.

See above

AI
Policy
Forecasting
Writing
Effective Altruism
Rationality
Progress Studies
Journalism
N/A
assadiguive@gmail.com
Ravenclaw
Joey Kellison-Linn
Quantitative Researcher

Listen to interesting talks, meet interesting people.

Interesting conversation, knowledge about finance & math, being cool and reasonable.

Forecasting
AI
Business
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Rationality
CogentAndUseful
Joeyrkl
Brodidyoujust
Ravenclaw
Pratik Chougule
Executive Director, Coalition for Political Forecasting; Host, Star Spangled Gamblers

I want to meet forecasters with an expertise in Washington state politics, UK politics, and climate policy

Expertise on the regulation of prediction markets; interview people about political gambling on Star Spangled Gamblers

AI
Forecasting
Business
Policy
Journalism
Finance
Angel investing
Grantmaking
Biotech
Writing
Effective Altruism
Rationality
New Science
Progress Studies
Pjchougule
Pjchougule
Pjchougule
Fraser Lee
Intern SWE @ Apple, Undergrad (compsci + physics, McGill)

I'm looking to build my network, with the intention to later draw upon that network when creating a team to solve something big (geoengineering, industrialising the solar system, alignment, all the major problems of the 21st century, the rest).

Can provide good conversation over Coffee

Forecasting
AI
Biotech
Effective Altruism
Rationality
New Science
Business
unbent_unbowed_unbroken
https://manifold.markets/spider
https://twitter.com/FraserLeeee
FraserLee4@gmail.com, IG https://www.instagram.com/fraser.leeee/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/fraserleeee/
Actively seeking employment
Anywhere in the USA or Canada, partial to somewhere fun :)
Slytherin
Andrew Peek
CEO at Delphia

I’m interested in novel business models for prediction markets and would like to discuss some ideas.

I think I can bring some options to the table to gauge if market makers are interested.

Forecasting
AI
Business
Policy
Finance
Mechanism design
New Science
drupeek
drupeek
drupeek
drupeek.com
Ravenclaw
Ashley Andreone
UX Researcher

Just being a sponge!

Happy to consult on the human interaction, needs, and product/market fit.

Forecasting
AI
Business
Effective Altruism
New Science
ashmo2
Andrey Fradkin
Professor / Economist

Interesting conversations

Attentive listening

Business
Policy
AI
Angel investing
Mechanism design
Progress Studies
New Science
Writing
Asquidy
Andreyfradkin
Www.andreyfradkin.com
Slytherin
Rob Miles
AI Safety Communicator

Fun conversations and interesting people

I don't know, feel free to ask! People keep asking me for advice and I'm not sure why but they tend not to regret it

AI
Rationality
Progress Studies
robertskmiles
robertskmiles
robertskmiles
robertskmiles.com
Jeffrey Fredrick
Coach for Software Managers & Executives

I want to talk with people who have experience in internal prediction markets for internal projects.

I know how to create high performing teams and to create high performing cultures. Ask me how! (Or read my book, Agile Conversations, and listen to podcast, Troubleshooting Agile.)

Business
Mechanism design
Rationality
Forecasting
JeffreyFredrick
Jtf
https://agileconversations.com/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jfredrick/
Not looking for full-time offers, but potentially interested in collaborations, contracting, or consulting
Ravenclaw
Mike Dodds
Principal Scientist, Galois Inc.

Interested in learning more about:

I'd be happy to talk about formal methods and automated reasoning - I have 20 years experience working on these topics. I also know a lot about DARPA and similar US Gov 'moonshot' funding, if thats of interest to you.

AI
Mechanism design
New Science
Forecasting
septract
@miike
miked@galois.com
Slytherin
Anton Makiievskyi
Gambler, creator of amana.bot

I'm looking for a full time project to start or join, and exploring how Zero Knowledge tech can be used in the real world (e.g. for whistleblowing of distributed reputation/trust system)

I may fund an ambitious project or person.

Rationality
Effective Altruism
Grantmaking
Angel investing
mckiev
mckiev
iammckiev
https://calendly.com/iammckiev
Not looking for full-time offers, but potentially interested in collaborations, contracting, or consulting
San Francisco
Ravenclaw
Jake Eaton
Editor at Asterisk

Na

Happy to take asterisk pitches, talk writing, etc

Journalism
Writing
Effective Altruism
New Science
Progress Studies
Business
Forecasting
AI
Jacobcopeland
JCE
Jkeatn
Ravenclaw
Arkadiy Kossakovsky
ML engineer at FXR, cofounder at LearnItFast

I want to find collaborators to work on simulating and doing small scale experiment with radically different social systems.

Share experience of a failed startup. Share what I know about the topic of life extension.

AI
Business
Writing
Mechanism design
Rationality
Effective Altruism
New Science
Progress Studies
Angel investing
Grantmaking
Forecasting
aka_homodeus
Instagram: @arkadiykossakovsky
https://www.linkedin.com/in/arkadiykossakovsky
Open to offers, but not actively looking
San Francisco
Kevin Wang
Living the intern life

Mess around with the rest of the Manifold whales, and ask a bunch of tough questions to some famous people.

Advice on how to Manifold better, optimal strategy to win the poker tournament if you're bad at poker, and making positive EV coin flips

Forecasting
AI
Business
Policy
Finance
nikki
nikki
what's a twitter
https://www.linkedin.com/in/kevin---wang/
Actively seeking employment
Willing to relocate
Gryffindor
Linch Zhang
Founder and CEO, Open Asteroid Impact

Here to absorb the vibes, learn cool new information, and meet new friends! I'm also always happy to pitch my totally-real-and-not-at-all-fake startup (openasteroidimpact.org) :)

I can trade jokes and memes.

Forecasting
AI
Grantmaking
Writing
Effective Altruism
Rationality
Mechanism design
New Science
linch.z
Linch
@LinchZhang
openasteroidimpact.org
email.linch@gmail.com
linkedin.com/in/linch
Not looking for full-time offers, but potentially interested in collaborations, contracting, or consulting
Berkeley, CA willing
Ravenclaw
Manifold User
aka Dustin ;)
  • Great security and software engineers for Anthropic
  • Cuddle puddle organizer
AI
Forecasting
Policy
Finance
Rationality
Effective Altruism
Progress Studies
Mechanism design
Ask me :)
https://manifold.love/moo
https://go.dustin.li/scheduling
Signal: @moo.01
Joel Becker
Qally's CEO, usually at METR

Fun!

Fun!

AI
Grantmaking
joel_bkr
JoelBecker
joel_bkr
https://joel-becker.com/
Liron Shapira
Host of Doom Debates

Mingling

AI doom thoughts

AI
N/A
liron
liron
https://lironshapira.substack.com
wiseguy@gmail.com
Ravenclaw
Paul Han
EE & Dilatant

Be myself around others being themselves with ourselves being understood

I’ve tried a lot of supplement experiments to feel better and I think many people want to feel better. I’m a careful observer of others when not occupied with myself.

AI
Journalism
Writing
New Science
Mechanism design
velvetundergroundandy
pauljunsukhan
engineeredhealth.cx
830-709-8368 (Signal & text)
Slytherin
Logan Daniels
Software engineer, actor, and learner of many things

stimulating friendship

also stimulating friendship

Writing
Effective Altruism
Rationality
Progress Studies
redlog3
Ravenclaw
Paul Han
Engineer & Health Hacker

Help people by telling stories about all the crazy pills and health experiments I’ve done, so they can do too.

I tried a lot of things to feel better and I think a lot of people want to feel better.

AI
Policy
Journalism
Writing
Mechanism design
velvetundergroundandy
pauljunsukhan
engineeredhealth.cx
860-709-8368 (Signal, txt)
https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-han-b861b3156?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=ios_app
Open to offers, but not actively looking
SF No
Slytherin
Stephen Wu
Engineer at Notion

P(Learning from cool people and making new friends) = 1

let's chat about tools for thought, productivity, mental models, software, education, or anything else :-)

Writing
AI
Angel investing
Rationality
Forecasting
wustep
wustep
wusteps
wustep.me
Jan Klenha
Co-founder and CEO of Czech Priorities

Ideas! Collaborations!

Sharing our policy experience from the Czech Republic

AI
Effective Altruism
Forecasting
Mechanism design
Rationality
JanK
JanK
JanKlenha
Linkedin.com/in/janklenha
klenhajan@gmail.com
Patrick Ward
Startup executive & advisor

I'm interested in developing tools to improve individual and collective epistemology. I'm exploring ideas like trust/believability scores for writers, public intellectuals, and influencers. I'd love to connect with others in the space.

I'm happy to be a thought partner to anyone on topics related to startup go-to-market or fraud & risk in fintech/financial services.

Forecasting
AI
Business
Journalism
Angel investing
Writing
pdw_live
pdw
patrickdward
patrick.d.ward@gmail.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/patrickdward/
Actively seeking employment
Austin, Texas
Gryffindor
Misha Glouberman
Consultant, exec coach, event embetterer

I want my working life to move closer to smart/weird Bay Area people (I'm in Toronto). I'm interested in finding events I can help make better - everything from conferences/festivals like Manifest to internal company conferences and leadership retreats

I can advise you on how to bring greater emotional intelligence to your event designs, and to your work interactions/collaborations

Forecasting
Business
Mechanism design
Effective Altruism
Rationality
Misha Glouberman
@mishaglouberman
https://www.mishaglouberman.com
misha@glouberman.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/misha-glouberman-57564/
Toronto - I'm an independent consultant, not looking for a job but I travel for work
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